THE FRONTLINE REPORT

It's Sunday, November 16, 2025. Ukrainian forces struck Russia's Ryazan Oil Refinery and Novorossiysk oil terminal, suspending 2% of Russia's global oil supply, while Russia conducted over 265 combat engagements and launched 4,863 kamikaze drones across Ukraine. Israeli forces killed two Palestinians and detained 15 others during West Bank operations in Askar refugee camp and multiple cities. FARC dissidents attacked a Colombian police station in Mondomo with 200 fighters using explosive drones and sustained gunfire. Sudan's army recaptured Kazqil and Um Dam Haj Ahmed in North Kordofan from RSF control. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier arrived in the Caribbean with 4,000 personnel as U.S. military buildup reached 15,000-16,000 troops amid Venezuela tensions. U.S. forces confirmed killing four people in their 20th strike on alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean. DRC government and M23 rebels signed a peace framework in Qatar covering ceasefire monitoring and prisoner exchange.

• Ukrainian forces struck Ryazan Oil Refinery 200km southeast of Moscow and Novorossiysk's Sheskharis oil terminal, suspending 2% of Russia's global oil supply
• Russia conducted 2 missile strikes using 23 missiles, 52 airstrikes with 111 guided bombs, and launched 4,863 kamikaze drones in 24 hours
• Pokrovsk direction witnessed 136+ Russian assault attempts, the war's most intense single-day fighting in that sector
• Ukrainian forces withdrew from Novovasylivske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, moving to more favorable defensive positions
• Ukrainian MiG-29 destroyed bridge near Kamianske in occupied Zaporizhzhia using US-made GBU-62 JDAM-ER guided bombs
• Ukraine and Russia agreed to Istanbul prisoner exchange framework with approximately 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners to be released

Ukrainian offensive strikes reshape energy infrastructure

Ukraine executed its most ambitious strategic strikes in months during overnight November 14-15 operations continuing into November 15. Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery approximately 200km southeast of Moscow using long-range drones, triggering massive fires at a facility producing 840,000 tons of aviation kerosene annually. Russian Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed damage to "one enterprise" while claiming air defenses intercepted 64 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 25 over Ryazan Oblast.

The most strategically significant strike targeted Novorossiysk's Sheskharis oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai, Russia's second-largest oil export center. Ukrainian forces deployed Neptune cruise missiles and drones in a combined assault that damaged port infrastructure, pipeline systems, pumping stations, and an S-400 air defense launcher with associated radars. The attack suspended exports of 2.2 million barrels per day—approximately 2% of Russia's global oil supply. At least 4 people were wounded, with damage to apartment buildings and civilian vessels prompting declaration of a state of emergency in Novorossiysk.

Additional Ukrainian strikes on November 15 destroyed a critical bridge near Kamianske in occupied Zaporizhzhia using US-made GBU-62 JDAM-ER guided bombs, severing the only high-quality asphalt road supporting Russian forces in the area. Ukrainian forces also struck a Nebo-U radar station in Crimea, a military train near Tokmak, and Russian troop concentrations near Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian aerial bombardment saturates Ukrainian defenses

Russia launched sustained multi-vector strikes throughout November 15, conducting 2 missile strikes using 23 missiles, 52 airstrikes deploying 111 guided bombs, and launching 4,863 kamikaze drones in a 24-hour period. The tempo represented 4,239 total attacks including 169 Multiple Launch Rocket System strikes across Ukrainian territory. Early morning attacks began after midnight with concentrated drone strikes on Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv region, and Odesa region.

Russia deployed Geranium and Gerbera drones against critical infrastructure throughout the morning hours, with notable strikes including a long-range precision attack on Lozovaya's railway junction at 11:40 and evening attacks on the Sloviansk thermal power plant. Targeted regions included Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odesa, and Chernihiv oblasts. Russia specifically targeted port infrastructure in Odesa, fuel and ammunition depots, railway junctions in Pavlohrad, and energy infrastructure across multiple regions.

Ground combat reaches critical intensity in Pokrovsk

The Pokrovsk direction witnessed the war's most intense fighting on November 15, with Russian forces launching 136+ assault attempts against Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian General Staff reported 107 Russian assaults by morning and 29 additional attacks by afternoon near Volodymyrivka, Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Novopavlivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske. Ukrainian defenders repelled 27 of 29 afternoon attacks with fighting continuing into evening.

Russian forces employed infiltration tactics using small groups supported by extensive drone reconnaissance, conducting intense street fighting inside portions of Pokrovsk city itself. Weekly casualties for the Pokrovsk direction reached 524 Russian killed and 260 wounded according to Ukrainian sources, with 55 units of ground military equipment destroyed including 4 tanks and 8 armored vehicles on November 14 alone.

Zaporizhzhia withdrawal and ongoing combat

Ukrainian forces executed a tactical withdrawal from Novovasylivske village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on November 15, moving to more favorable defensive positions after Russian forces largely occupied the village throughout early November. Russia's Ministry of Defense also claimed capture of Yablukove village in the same region. The Zaporizhzhia direction witnessed nearly 40 combat engagements in 24 hours concentrated around Oleksandrivske and Huliaipole.

Russian forces occupied most of Stepnohorsk, blocking Ukrainian units near the town's main fortified area, and advanced into Prymorske village along the former Kakhovka Reservoir shore. Russian forces delivered over 350 strikes using more than 1,500 rounds of ammunition in the 24-hour period. A video circulating November 15 appeared to show Russian forces executing 2-3 captured Ukrainian servicemen near Zatyshshia, with Zaporizhzhia Regional Prosecutor's Office opening an investigation on November 16.

Additional sectors and prisoner exchange

The Kharkiv direction saw fierce fighting concentrated around Kupiansk, where Russian forces continued operations against encircled Ukrainian units. Five Russian assaults near Bohuslavka, Kupiansk, Pishchane, and Novoplatonivka met Ukrainian resistance. Eleven engagements occurred near Vovchansk, Synelnykove, Odradne, and Dvorichanske. The Lyman direction recorded 25 Russian attacks near Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Karpivka, and Kolodiazi.

Ukrainian General Staff reported approximately 1,000 Russian personnel casualties in the 24-hour period ending November 15, along with destruction of 6 tanks, 19 armored combat vehicles, 20 artillery systems, 2 air defense systems, 90 vehicles, and 490 operational-tactical UAVs. On November 15, Ukraine and Russia agreed to proceed with the Istanbul prisoner exchange framework, with approximately 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners to be released under negotiations overseen by Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

• Israeli Defense Forces killed Hassan Ahmed Jamil Moussa, 19, during overnight raid in Askar refugee camp east of Nablus
• Israeli forces detained 15 Palestinians across Nablus, Qalqilya, and Ramallah governorates in coordinated West Bank operations
• Gaza Health Ministry received remains of 15 Palestinians from Israel via International Committee of Red Cross, bringing total returns to 330
• Israeli naval vessels fired on southern Gaza while attack drones targeted Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza
• Israeli Defense Forces continued operations throughout southern Lebanon during week of November 3-15

Fatal raid in Askar refugee camp

Israeli Defense Forces conducted a large-scale operation in the West Bank overnight November 15 into early November 16, resulting in one Palestinian death and multiple detentions. Hassan Ahmed Jamil Moussa, 19 years old, was shot in the chest with live ammunition during confrontations in Askar refugee camp east of Nablus. Israeli forces stormed Nablus from several directions, with the IDF statement indicating "a terrorist hurled an explosive device towards the soldiers" and soldiers "responded with fire."

Palestinian sources reported Moussa was detained by Israeli forces and was already deceased when handed over to Palestinian Red Crescent ambulance services. One additional Palestinian was shot in the back and transported to hospital. The raid affected multiple neighborhoods including Ras al-Ain, Al-Basha, and Nablus Old City.

Mass arrest operations across northern West Bank

Israeli forces conducted coordinated arrest operations across multiple West Bank cities on November 15, detaining 15 Palestinians in operations spanning Nablus, Qalqilya, and Ramallah governorates. In Askar refugee camp, three individuals were arrested: Fajr Behnjawi, Mohammad Jalal Abu Salem, and Mohammad Salama. Madama village saw arrest of three persons including Bassam Wajih Qatt, Qassam Mohammad Ziadeh, and Ahmad Amer Nassar.

Beit Furik operations resulted in two arrests including Mahmoud Hussein Nasrallah Hannani. Six Palestinians were detained in Qalqilya's Kafr Saba neighborhood including two siblings, while two were arrested in Bayt Rima town in Ramallah governorate. Operations included deployment of stun grenades and tear gas canisters. Separate incidents on Saturday evening included attacks in Dura south of Hebron, with one young Palestinian woman shot in the head and rushed to hospital.

Gaza ceasefire violations continue

Despite the ongoing ceasefire, Israeli forces conducted multiple military actions in Gaza on November 15. Naval vessels opened fire on areas of southern Gaza while attack drones fired on Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Israeli forces shelled the outskirts of Gaza City's Shujaiya neighborhood and fired illumination flares in areas southeast of Khan Younis, typically used to highlight enemy positions before attacks.

The Gaza Health Ministry announced receipt of remains of 15 Palestinians from Israel via the International Committee of Red Cross on November 15, bringing the total number of Palestinian bodies returned under the ceasefire deal to 330. Forensic teams had identified 97 bodies. Many remains showed signs of abuse including beatings, bound hands, blindfolds, and facial disfigurement according to health ministry reports.

Lebanon operations and Syrian diplomatic developments

Israeli Defense Forces continued operations throughout southern Lebanon during the week of November 3-15, with activities spanning both sides of the Litani River. The week of November 3-9 resulted in 10 killed including 6 Hezbollah operatives and 27 wounded. Operations included airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure and weapon depots, demolition of buildings in Aitaroun used by Hezbollah, seizure and destruction of weapons in Ramyeh, and five strikes killing three Hezbollah members accused of violating ceasefire terms.

The European Union organized the 9th edition of its "Day of Dialogue" in Damascus on November 15, marking the first time the event was held in the Syrian capital. The event brought together Syrian civil society, EU officials, and Syrian transitional government representatives to discuss sensitive issues including sectarian tensions, ethnic divisions, and reconciliation following the fall of the Assad regime.

• Armed clashes occurred outside Pakokku township in Magway Region as Myanmar Armed Forces engaged with Ethnic Armed Organizations and People's Defence Forces
• Fighting in Falam township, Chin State injured 3 civilians, destroyed properties, and forced approximately 5,000 internally displaced persons to flee to India-Myanmar border
• Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism website came under intensified cyber attack on November 15, forcing the site temporarily offline
• China issued travel warning on November 15 advising Chinese citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, citing provocative remarks on Taiwan
• United States announced plans to sell arms to Taiwan on November 15 to maintain combat readiness and bolster air defense capabilities

Myanmar civil war intensifies

Armed clashes continued across Myanmar on November 15 as part of the country's ongoing civil war. Explosions occurred outside Pakokku township in Magway Region as Myanmar Armed Forces clashed with Ethnic Armed Organizations and People's Defence Forces. Communications were cut and road access blocked in Pakokku, with access from Pakokku to all areas in Sagaing and Chin regions blocked since November 11. Local partners were warned to evacuate as intense clashes were expected.

In Falam township, Chin State, armed clashes that began November 11 continued through November 15, resulting in 3 civilians injured, several civilian properties destroyed, and approximately 5,000 internally displaced persons forced to flee to the India-Myanmar border area. Approximately 3,000 IDPs reportedly crossed into India while the remaining 2,000 sought safety in forested areas within Falam township. The fighting represented part of what the United Nations characterized as the largest and most geographically widespread escalation since the 2021 military takeover.

Philippine media under cyber attack

The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism website came under intensified cyber attack on November 15, forcing the site temporarily offline. The attack began November 13 and escalated on November 15. While not traditional armed conflict, the incident represents information warfare targeting independent media. The National Union of Journalists of the Philippines and International Federation of Journalists condemned the attack.

China-Japan tensions escalate over Taiwan

China issued a travel warning on November 15 advising Chinese citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, citing "blatantly provocative remarks on Taiwan" by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi stated November 7 that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute "an existential threat" to Japan requiring military response. The Chinese Consul General in Osaka had posted threatening language about "cutting off that dirty neck" in response.

Japan protested China's travel advisory on November 15, calling it regrettable and an overreaction to legitimate security concerns. The diplomatic escalation follows weeks of mounting tensions, with China summoning Japan's ambassador twice in November. The United States announced plans on November 15 to sell arms to Taiwan to maintain combat readiness and bolster air defense capabilities, though this was an announcement rather than an operational event.

• Baloch armed groups destroyed major gas transmission pipeline in Mach area of Bolan district, Balochistan, disrupting supply to multiple districts
• Balochistan provincial government enforced Section 144 restrictions on public gatherings through November 30, 2025
• Nine killed and 32 injured in accidental explosion at Nowgam Police Station in Srinagar, Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir

Balochistan gas pipeline sabotage

Baloch armed groups destroyed a major gas transmission pipeline in the Mach area of Bolan district, Balochistan, Pakistan in the early morning of Saturday, November 15. The attack targeted an 18-inch diameter pipeline belonging to Sui Southern Gas Company, using explosives to sever the line. The sabotage disrupted gas supply to multiple districts including Quetta, Pishin, Kuchlak, Ziarat, Mastung, and Kalat.

SSGC officially confirmed the attack, which perpetrators described as part of Baloch "defense forces" operations against Pakistan's resource extraction infrastructure. The attack occurred during heightened tensions in Balochistan, with the provincial government enforcing Section 144 restrictions on public gatherings through November 30, 2025. The region has experienced escalating enforced disappearances and protests. No casualties were reported from the pipeline attack itself, though the infrastructure damage significantly disrupted civilian gas supplies across the region.

India police station explosion

An explosion at Nowgam Police Station in Srinagar, Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir killed 9 people and injured 32, though this incident occurred at 11:20 PM on November 14, 2025, not November 15. Moreover, authorities confirmed this was an accidental explosion during forensic examination of approximately 2,900 kg of seized ammonium nitrate and explosives, not an act of terrorism or armed conflict.

The explosives had been seized from Faridabad during investigation of a Jaish-e-Mohammed terror module. Indian government officials confirmed on November 15 that the blast was accidental, occurring during handling of seized materials. Casualties included police officers, forensic staff, and bystanders. The explosion represents a tragic accident rather than a November 15 armed conflict event, though it highlights the dangerous conditions under which security personnel operate when handling seized explosives.

• Sudanese Armed Forces recaptured Kazqil and Um Dam Haj Ahmed localities in North Kordofan State from Rapid Support Forces control
• U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab positions approximately 55km northeast of Kismayo on November 14-15
• Boko Haram insurgents ambushed Nigerian military patrol near Wajiroko, killing two soldiers and two Civilian Joint Task Force members
• DRC government and M23 rebel group signed comprehensive framework peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, covering ceasefire monitoring and prisoner exchange

Sudan army recaptures North Kordofan territories

The Sudanese Armed Forces conducted a rapid military operation on Saturday morning, November 15, successfully recapturing the localities of Kazqil and Um Dam Haj Ahmed in North Kordofan State from Rapid Support Forces control. Kazqil, located south of el-Obeid, had fallen to RSF in late October. The army had withdrawn from Um Dam Haj Ahmed in late October after losing the strategic city of Bara.

Military sources indicated the army was working to secure both areas and establish defensive positions, though specific casualty figures were not released. The recapture occurred amid continuing RSF atrocities in el-Fasher, with satellite imagery from Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab confirming body disposal at four new locations on November 14-15.

Somalia counterterrorism strikes

U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab positions approximately 55km northeast of Kismayo on November 14-15, 2025. The operations were coordinated with the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces as part of sustained efforts to degrade al-Shabaab's operational capabilities. Casualty figures were not specified in the AFRICOM press release issued November 16.

The strikes represented part of intensified U.S. operations in the region, with previous confirmed strikes occurring on November 11, 13, and 14, indicating a concentrated operational tempo during this period.

Nigeria military ambush

Insurgents launched a surprise ambush on a Nigerian military patrol team on Friday, November 15, killing two Nigerian Army soldiers and two Civilian Joint Task Force members near Wajiroko on the Azir-Multe axis in Damboa Local Government Area, Borno State. The patrol, led by Brigadier General M. Uba, Commander of 25 Task Force Brigade, was returning from a clearance mission around Sambisa Forest fringes when terrorists opened heavy fire.

Troops and CJTF members responded with superior firepower, breaking through the ambush and forcing attackers to flee. Brigadier General Uba temporarily went missing for several hours during the attack but later returned to base on foot. The Nigerian Army confirmed the incident on Saturday, November 15, specifically refuting viral claims that the commander had been abducted.

DRC peace framework signed

Representatives from the DRC government and M23 rebel group signed a comprehensive framework peace agreement in Doha, Qatar on Saturday, November 15. The agreement was mediated by Qatar and the United States. The framework includes eight implementation protocols, with two signed immediately covering ceasefire monitoring and prisoner exchange.

The remaining six protocols are to be finalized in coming weeks and address humanitarian aid access, return of displaced persons, restoring state authority, economic reforms, reintegration of armed groups, and elimination of foreign armed groups. Despite the agreement, M23 claimed its forces were bombarded by the DRC government on Saturday morning and that they captured additional territory from DRC soldiers, indicating the framework did not immediately halt fighting.

• Approximately 200 FARC dissident fighters attacked police station in Mondomo, Santander de Quilichao, Cauca Department at 5:30 AM using explosive drones and sustained gunfire
• U.S. confirmed killing four people in 20th strike on alleged drug-trafficking vessels in Caribbean on November 10
• USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier arrived in northern Caribbean on November 15 with 4,000+ personnel as U.S. military buildup reached 15,000-16,000 troops
• Venezuela activated "Plan Independencia 200" military exercise with nearly 200,000 troops deployed

FARC dissidents assault Colombian police station

Approximately 200 FARC dissident fighters from the 'Jaime Martínez' structure launched a coordinated attack on the police station in Mondomo corregimiento, municipality of Santander de Quilichao, Cauca Department at approximately 5:30 AM local time on Saturday, November 15. The assault employed explosive-laden drones, sustained rifle fire, and explosive charges placed around the perimeter.

The attack initiated with explosives launched from drones followed by approximately 40 minutes of gunfire before air support arrived for besieged police officers. Detonations destroyed and damaged civilian homes and businesses surrounding the police station. Weapons used included M60 machine guns, Galil AR assault rifles, AR-15 rifles, and explosive charges. Multiple police injuries were reported though exact numbers were not officially released. The attack occurred along the Panamericana highway between Cali and Popayán.

Caribbean military buildup intensifies

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier arrived in the northern Caribbean on Sunday, November 15, as part of Operation Southern Spear. The carrier brought 4,000+ sailors and dozens of tactical aircraft, joining a broader U.S. military buildup of 15,000-16,000 personnel in the region. Accompanying forces included 7 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, 2 guided-missile cruisers, amphibious vessels carrying 4,500 Marines, and fast-attack submarine USS Newport News.

Venezuela responded by activating "Plan Independencia 200" military exercise with nearly 200,000 troops deployed. President Trump stated on November 14 he had "sort of made up my mind" about potential military action against Venezuela. The U.S. confirmed on November 15 that its 20th strike on alleged drug-trafficking vessels occurred November 10, killing 4 people and bringing the total death toll to approximately 80 since September 2025.

Regional tensions and military posturing

Venezuelan President Maduro denounced U.S. Marine Corps exercises beginning in Trinidad and Tobago, calling them "irresponsible" and threatening regional peace. Latin American countries condemned the buildup, citing the 2014 "Zone of Peace" agreement. The military buildup represents significant escalation and posturing but no combat operations occurred on November 15 itself.

U.S. officials stated the Caribbean deployment aims to counter Venezuelan narco-trafficking and restore democratic governance, though the unprecedented concentration of military assets has raised concerns about potential intervention. The deployment includes capabilities far exceeding counter-narcotics requirements, suggesting preparation for broader military contingencies. Regional analysts note the operation's similarity to pre-invasion buildups in previous U.S. military interventions.

No significant conflict developments, cyberattacks with operational impact on critical infrastructure, or space security incidents were documented across the Cyber & Space theater on November 15, 2025. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily cyber conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying digital security challenges affecting this domain.