Executive Summary

It's Friday, February 13th. On the 12th, Russia launched its largest combined missile-drone barrage of 2026 overnight, striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure across 13 oblasts with 25 missiles and 219 drones—killing at least 10 civilians and leaving 300,000 in Odesa without power. NATO's Ramstein-33 meeting pledged $35 billion in military aid as Ukraine's new Defence Minister urgently requested Patriot interceptors. The U.S. completed its withdrawal from Syria's al-Tanf base, handing control to Syrian government forces. Sudan's RSF expanded drone warfare against civilian targets including a mosque in North Kordofan. Myanmar's junta burned villages across Mandalay while conducting airstrikes in Magway. Taiwan detected 37 PLA aircraft sorties with 27 crossing the median line. Bangladesh's first post-revolution election was marred by bombings at polling stations. Google disclosed that China's APT31 used Gemini AI to plan cyberattacks against U.S. organizations, while Microsoft patched six actively exploited zero-days.

U.S. completes al-Tanf withdrawal as Syrian forces take control

Syria saw the completion of a major U.S. military drawdown as Syrian Arab Army forces formally took control of the al-Tanf military base near the Iraq-Jordan-Syria border junction on February 12. U.S. Central Command had completed its withdrawal on February 11, and Syria's Defence Ministry confirmed the handover "through coordination between the Syrian and American sides." U.S. troop levels in Syria dropped from approximately 1,500 to roughly 900–1,000. Separately, a UN report disclosed on February 12 revealed five foiled assassination attempts against Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and senior officials by Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah, assessed as an Islamic State front. The transfer of approximately 5,000 ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraqi custody was nearing completion.

Iraqi airstrikes kill ISIS militants near Hatra

In Iraq, the Iraqi Air Force conducted airstrikes on ISIS hideouts near Hatra, Nineveh Governorate, killing 4 militants. An ISIS suicide bomber detonated during an attempted arrest in Al-Qa'im District, killing himself and injuring 2 security officers. CENTCOM separately reported strikes near Rawa killing 5 ISIS operatives.

Gaza operations continue as UNRWA staff member killed

Gaza continued to experience near-daily Israeli military operations under the fragile October 2025 ceasefire. On February 12, UNRWA reported the killing of a staff member during Israeli strikes, bringing the total UNRWA staff deaths to 391 since the war began. Israeli forces demolished a UN school in Jabalia—the eighth UNRWA school destroyed since January. Over 556 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire took effect. Israeli forces also conducted demolitions across the West Bank as part of sweeping annexation measures approved by the security cabinet, which extended Israeli administrative control into Areas A and B previously under Palestinian Authority jurisdiction. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared the goal was to "kill the idea of a Palestinian state."

Iran marks revolution anniversary as Larijani warns of retaliation

Iran observed its February 12 "Unity Day" (1979 revolution anniversary) with regime-organized rallies across the country. In Doha, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani accused Israel of fabricating pretexts to provoke war and warned that Tehran would strike U.S. military bases if attacked. Iran's Ofogh TV broadcast a "hit list" of seven Israeli officials with Hebrew-language threats. The U.S.-based HRANA reported the death toll from Iran's January 2026 protest crackdown had reached at least 7,002 killed—the government's own figure stood at 3,117 as of January 21.

Pentagon prepares second carrier strike group deployment

On the military front, President Trump appeared to confirm Pentagon preparations to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group (USS George H.W. Bush) to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East, giving Iran approximately "a month" to reach a nuclear deal. The UN Security Council held its monthly Yemen briefing, with Special Envoy Grundberg warning that regional tensions risk dragging Yemen back into conflict.

Sources

Reuters, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, CENTCOM, UN News, UNRWA, HRANA, Syria Defence Ministry, ABC News, Foreign Affairs

Russia launches 244-projectile barrage against Ukrainian energy infrastructure

Russia conducted one of its largest combined strikes of 2026 overnight into February 12, launching 25 missiles (including 24 ballistic) and 219 attack drones across 13 Ukrainian oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 16 missiles and 197 drones, but 9 missile impacts and 19 drone hits struck critical energy infrastructure including Kyiv's TPP-5, TPP-4, and Darnitsa thermal power plants, Dnipropetrovsk's Pridneprovskaya TPP, Odesa's YuZR electrical substation, and a high-voltage substation in Lviv. Approximately 300,000 people in Odesa lost electricity and water, while 8,800 multi-story buildings across Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa lost heating.

Civilian casualties spread across multiple Ukrainian regions

Civilian casualties from Russian strikes were spread across multiple regions. In Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a strike killed an elderly couple and their 45-year-old son, with three others injured. In Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast, a combined ballistic missile and Shahed drone attack killed a 55-year-old man and 88-year-old woman, injuring six more. Across Kharkiv Oblast overall, 3 people were killed and 20 injured as 15 settlements were struck, including two children aged 14 and 15 in Zolochiv and a 63-year-old woman near Bryhadyrivka. A Russian drone struck an ambulance in Kharkiv Oblast carrying five people, killing one woman. In Kramatorsk, two FAB-250 aerial bombs damaged 11 high-rise buildings and injured two civilians. Two medics were wounded by bombardment in Kherson city around 06:40 local time, and a 76-year-old woman was injured by an FPV drone in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ukrainian General Staff records 132 combat clashes along front lines

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 132 combat clashes along the front lines, with the heaviest fighting around Pokrovsk (25–34 Russian assault attempts) and the Huliaipole/Zaporizhzhia direction (14+ clashes). Ukrainian forces struck back across Russian territory on February 12. In Belgorod Oblast, attacks killed 2 people and injured at least 15, with energy infrastructure damage affecting approximately 78,000 residents. Russian Deputy PM Khusnullin called the strikes "unprecedented," deploying 330+ emergency crews. In Bryansk Oblast, one Miratorg agricultural employee was killed. Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery and a Ministry of Defense facility near Kotluban in Volgograd Oblast, starting fires. A training facility in Tambov Oblast was struck, injuring two. Russia's Ministry of Defense reported shooting down 106 Ukrainian drones and imposed flight restrictions at airports in eight regions.

NATO pledges $35 billion at Ramstein-33 as allies convene in Brussels

The 33rd Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein-33) met at NATO Headquarters on February 12, convened jointly by the UK and Germany. Ukraine's newly appointed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov attended for the first time, urgently requesting PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles in direct response to that morning's ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv. Allies pledged $35 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2026. Germany committed 5 additional PAC-3 interceptors conditionally, and the UK pledged £150 million to the PURL weapons program. The meeting coincided with NATO Defence Ministers' sessions and preceded the Munich Security Conference, whose advance report "Under Destruction" warned Russia could attack another NATO state within six months of any Ukraine ceasefire. President Zelensky stated Ukraine would hold elections only after a ceasefire with security guarantees. The lapse of the New START nuclear treaty between the U.S. and Russia was also acknowledged by Vice President Vance as deeply concerning.

Sources

Ukrinform, Ukrainian General Staff, Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda, Al Jazeera, ABC News, Mezha, Global Security, NATO, Foreign Policy, Reuters

No significant conflict developments reported

No significant conflict developments, military operations, terrorist attacks, or security incidents were documented in the Americas theater on February 12, 2026. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying security challenges affecting this region.

RSF drone strikes kill civilians in Sudan's Kordofan states

The Rapid Support Forces continued to expand drone warfare across Sudan on February 12. An RSF drone struck the al-Kurqal area linking Dilling and Kadugli in South Kordofan state, killing 2 civilians and wounding 4, some critically. The Sudan Doctors Network called it a "fully constituted crime." One day earlier, an RSF drone hit the Sheikh Ahmed al-Badawi Mosque in al-Rahad, North Kordofan, during a dawn Quran lesson, killing 2 children and injuring 12–13 others including students—a strike widely reported on February 12, which the Sudan Doctors Network called "a dangerous escalation." The UN had documented 90+ civilian deaths and 142 injuries from drone strikes by both RSF and SAF forces between late January and early February alone. On February 12, the "Quintet" (AU, IGAD, League of Arab States, EU, UN) issued a joint statement calling for immediate de-escalation.

JNIM conducts armed assault in Burkina Faso

In Burkina Faso, the al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin) conducted an armed assault in Yatenga Province, Nord Region, killing 2 people. This occurred against a backdrop of intensifying Sahelite militancy—36 Nigerien soldiers were killed near the Niger-Burkina Faso border in early February. Russia's FM Lavrov and Burkina Faso's FM Traore signed a bilateral relations agreement in Moscow on February 12, with Lavrov praising military cooperation as "exemplary."

Angola proposes DRC ceasefire as FARDC offensive continues

In the DRC, the Congolese army (FARDC), supported by Vectus Global (a U.S.-linked PMC) and Israeli advisers, continued an offensive against M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels in South Kivu, recapturing four villages near Minembwe on February 11. Angola proposed a ceasefire effective February 18, with talks attended by Presidents Lourenço and Tshisekedi.

Ethiopia redeploys forces toward Tigray as regional tensions rise

In Ethiopia, the ENDF redeployed large forces toward Tigray from February 7, with reports of Eritrean infiltration. Amhara Fano militias exploited these redeployments to capture towns including Debre-Tabor. South Sudan's SPLM-IO rebellion continued in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states, with 371,000 newly displaced. South Africa's President Ramaphosa announced military deployment against gang violence during his February 12 State of the Nation Address. The AU Peace and Security Council held its 1330th meeting to discuss Somalia and Sudan situations.

Sources

Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency, TRT World, Sudan Doctors Network, Critical Threats, AU Peace and Security Council, AllAfrica, UNHCR, Religion News Service

Myanmar junta burns villages and bombs civilians across multiple fronts

Myanmar's military junta conducted operations across at least five regions on February 12. In Natogyi Township, Mandalay Region, hundreds of junta troops torched villages across a dozen settlements, forcing 10,000 civilians to flee. In Pauk Township, Magway Region, a junta airstrike on Chatkan Village killed 5 civilians including 4 women. In Chauk Township, Magway Region, resistance forces (PDF and allies) engaged junta troops and Pyusawti militia, reportedly killing 10 junta soldiers and capturing one militia member. An urban guerrilla attack in Hmawbi Township, Yangon Region, targeted militia vehicles with mines and grenades.

Fighting continues across Kachin State as ethnic leaders condemn airstrikes

Fighting continued daily across four Kachin State townships (Bhamo, Waingmaw, Hpakant, Indawgyi), while RCSS Chairman Gen. Yawd Serk publicly condemned the junta's air campaign, citing 1,728 civilian deaths from airstrikes since late 2024. Negotiations between the National Unity Government and the K3C ethnic alliance toward a unified "Steering Council" leadership were ongoing.

Taiwan detects 37 PLA aircraft sorties with 27 crossing median line

Taiwan detected 37 PLA aircraft sorties from 2:31 PM on February 12, with 27 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line and entering northern, central, southwestern, and eastern sectors of Taiwan's ADIZ for air-sea joint training with PLAN vessels. A morning count showed 17 additional PLA aircraft with 14 crossing the median line. China's rhetoric escalated sharply, with the Taiwan Affairs Office calling President Lai Ching-te a "diehard separatist" and "saboteur of peace."

Xi reveals PLA Cyberspace Force unit on Fiery Cross Reef

In a significant disclosure, Xi Jinping's Lunar New Year video greeting revealed a PLA Cyberspace Force unit stationed on Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands—the first public acknowledgment of such a deployment. Australia's HMAS Toowoomba conducted a freedom-of-navigation transit through the South China Sea.

Sources

Myanmar Now, Mizzima, Burma News International, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, South China Morning Post, China MFA, The Tribune India, ACLED

Bangladesh election marred by bombings and violence

Bangladesh held its first post-revolution general election on February 12, deploying 908,000 security personnel including 108,730 military. Multiple incidents of election-day violence occurred: crude bombs exploded at polling centers in Gopalganj (3 injured including a 13-year-old girl and 2 paramilitary members), 10–12 crude bombs detonated at a Munshiganj polling station, BNP-Jamaat clashes erupted in Dhaka and Khulna, and a BNP leader (Mohibuzzaman Kochi, 55) died during an altercation with Jamaat-e-Islami activists. Pre-stamped ballots were seized at multiple locations. Turnout was reported at approximately 47.91%.

Pakistan holds funerals for police killed in militant ambush

In Pakistan, state funerals were held for 4–5 police officers killed in a February 11 militant ambush in Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The attack was attributed to TTP-suspected fighters who ambushed a police patrol in the Wanda Budh area, killing 4 police officers including the Station House Officer and injuring 2 more. Separately, 8 people including 3 children were injured in quadcopter drone attacks in Lakki Marwat on February 11, with attacks targeting civilian areas.

Sources

The Tribune India, Deccan Chronicle, Sunday Guardian, Xinhua, Dunya News, Telangana Today

Google discloses Chinese APT31 used Gemini AI for attack planning

February 12 brought major disclosures in the cyber domain. Google's Threat Intelligence Group released its AI Threat Tracker revealing that Chinese state-sponsored group APT31 used Google's Gemini chatbot with the Hexstrike red-teaming tool to auto-analyze vulnerabilities and plan attacks against U.S. organizations, including identifying RCE, WAF bypass, and SQL injection vectors. North Korea's UNC2970 was separately documented using Gemini for target reconnaissance against cybersecurity and defense firms. The Kimsuky-Lazarus collaboration was publicly detailed by Trend Micro, showing North Korea's two premier APT groups sharing servers, intelligence, and exploit tools in a combined espionage-and-theft operation that targeted European energy firms.

Microsoft patches six actively exploited zero-days

Microsoft's February 2026 Patch Tuesday addressed 59 vulnerabilities including 6 actively exploited zero-days—two rated CVSS 8.8 (Windows Shell SmartScreen bypass, MSHTML framework bypass), with CrowdStrike confirming one RDP privilege escalation flaw had been exploited against U.S. and Canadian entities since December 2025. CISA added all six to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. Apple simultaneously patched an actively exploited zero-day (CVE-2026-20700) across its entire device ecosystem.

Dutch telecom Odido breached, 6.2 million customers affected

The largest data breach disclosed on February 12 hit Odido, one of the Netherlands' largest telecom providers, with 6.2 million customer records compromised including names, bank account numbers, government IDs, and contact details. The breach, detected over the February 7–8 weekend, occurred through Odido's CRM system. In healthcare, ApolloMD disclosed a breach affecting 626,000 patients, while Texas AG Paxton launched an investigation into the Conduent breach affecting 4 million Texans.

Recorded Future warns connectivity disruption becoming tool of coercion

The Recorded Future 2026 State of Security Report, released at the Munich Cyber Security Conference, warned that "connectivity disruption will become the go-to tool of coercion" as states favor brief, reversible attacks on cables, satellites, and telecom infrastructure.

Sources

The Register, Google Threat Intelligence, CyberScoop, CrowdStrike, Malwarebytes, Bleeping Computer, Cyber Security News, PR Newswire, Texas Attorney General