Executive Summary

It's Tuesday, February 17th. At least 126 people were confirmed killed across six active theaters on the 16th. A TTP suicide vehicle bombing in Bajaur, Pakistan killed 24 including 11 security personnel and a child, while a drone strike on a market in North Kordofan, Sudan killed 28 civilians. Israeli airstrikes killed 9 across three strikes in Lebanon and 11 Palestinians died in Gaza. The Russia-Ukraine war ground through 235 combat clashes along the entire front as delegations departed for Geneva peace talks. Iran's IRGC launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz one day before renewed nuclear talks. Five European nations confirmed that epibatidine, a dart-frog neurotoxin, killed Alexei Navalny — a finding Russia rejected on the second anniversary of his death. A senior JNIM commander defected to Islamic State Sahel Province in the largest recorded mass fighter transfer between the groups.

Israeli airstrikes kill 9 in three strikes across Lebanon

Three separate Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory on February 16 killed a total of 9 people. An IDF airstrike on a vehicle in Majdal Anjar, Beqaa Governorate, killed 4 people including a Syrian national; Israel stated it targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives. A second strike in Tallouseh, southern Lebanon killed 2 people, with the IDF claiming it targeted a Hezbollah operative. Three additional PIJ members were killed near the al-Masnaa border crossing with Syria. These strikes took place against a backdrop of escalating political tension: Lebanon's army chief Gen. Rodolph Haykal presented phase two of the Hezbollah disarmament plan to cabinet, covering areas south of the Awali River and expected to take 4–8 months. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem called the government's disarmament effort "a grave sin" serving Israeli goals. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited Beirut on the same day, meeting PM Nawaf Salam and calling on all parties to honor the November 2024 ceasefire. Since that ceasefire, Israel has killed over 330 people in Lebanon and committed 11,000+ violations according to UNIFIL.

Eleven Palestinians killed in Gaza as ceasefire phase two looms

Israeli forces killed at least 11 Palestinians in Gaza during the 24-hour period ending February 16. The cumulative death toll surpassed 72,063 according to Palestinian health authorities. Médecins Sans Frontières halted some operations at Nasser Hospital after armed men were reported inside the facility, and the UN Mine Action Service remained unable to begin major explosives clearing because Israel and Hamas have not agreed on disarmament terms. Phase two of the ceasefire was expected to begin the following week.

Israel announces West Bank land registration in major territorial escalation

Israel announced the resumption of land title registration in Area C of the occupied West Bank — approximately 60% of the territory under full Israeli civil and military control — frozen since 1967. Peace Now's Hagit Ofran stated Israel could gain control of 83% of Area C, amounting to roughly half the West Bank. Palestinian Authority President Abbas described the measure as "de facto annexation." The European Union called for reversal. Jordan and Qatar issued formal condemnations.

IRGC launches Hormuz naval drills as Iran signals nuclear flexibility

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched naval exercises named "Smart Control of Hormuz Strait" on February 16, one day before renewed Oman-mediated nuclear talks. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that Iran was willing to compromise if sanctions relief was on the table. Reuters reported that the U.S. military was preparing contingency plans for strikes on Iran lasting weeks if ordered by President Trump. Two carrier strike groups — the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford — were deployed to the region alongside F-35A stealth fighters.

Sources

Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Reuters, NPR, The National, WAFA, Anadolu Agency, BBC, CNN, MSF

Russia-Ukraine war grinds through 235 combat clashes on Day 1,454

The Russia-Ukraine front line saw 235 combat clashes on February 16, with the heaviest fighting on the Pokrovsk axis (63 assault attempts repelled), the Huliaipole front (37 attacks), and the Oleksandrivka front (21 attacks). Russia's military claimed capture of Minkovka in Donetsk Oblast and Pokrovka in Sumy Oblast, while advancing 1.5 km north of Stepnogorsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and capturing approximately 9 square kilometers across multiple axes. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky visited command posts in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where Ukrainian forces were conducting effective counterattacks in the Huliaipole area.

Russia strikes Ukraine with hypersonic missiles as drone war intensifies

Russia struck Ukraine with 4 Zircon hypersonic missiles — including one hitting the Makarov area of Kyiv Oblast at 04:25 — along with 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile, 62 drones, 53 air strikes dropping 140 guided aerial bombs, 1,654 kamikaze drones, and 1,640 shells. Strikes hit energy and transport infrastructure across 152 areas in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kherson, Kyiv, and Odesa regions. At least 13 Ukrainian civilians were injured across the country. An explosion of a car in Odesa was classified as a terrorist act by the SBU. Ukraine's planned power outages across the country reflected ongoing damage to energy infrastructure from sustained Russian strikes.

Ukrainian drones strike Taman oil terminal and Bryansk infrastructure

Ukrainian drone attacks on the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal at Taman port in Krasnodar Krai ignited fires, wounding 2 workers and requiring more than 100 firefighters. Bryansk region suffered its most intensive drone attack to date, with 5 municipalities losing heat and electricity. Five drones were downed over Moscow. Ukrainian claims put Russian daily losses at approximately 1,180 troops; Russia counter-claimed approximately 1,090 Ukrainian losses. Neither figure is independently verifiable.

Navalny anniversary marked by dart-frog toxin confirmation as Russia denies findings

On the second anniversary of Alexei Navalny's death, Russia rejected the joint findings of five nations — the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands — that epibatidine, a neurotoxin from Ecuadorian poison dart frogs, was found in his body. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated that only the Russian government had the means, motive, and opportunity. The UK reported Russia to the OPCW for breaching the Chemical Weapons Convention. Kremlin spokesman Peskov dismissed the findings as "biased and baseless." Dozens of supporters visited Navalny's Moscow grave on the exact anniversary.

Delegations depart for Geneva peace talks as Wagner shifts to sabotage

Delegations departed for Geneva trilateral peace talks scheduled for February 17–18. Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov led the Ukrainian team; Russia expanded its delegation to 20 members with direct instructions from President Putin. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Hungary's Orbán in Budapest as part of a pre-talks European diplomatic swing. The Financial Times reported that former Wagner Group operatives were being reassigned to recruit Europeans for Kremlin-backed sabotage operations across NATO territory.

Sources

Ukrainska Pravda, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian General Staff, Ukrinform, Kyiv Post, Global Security, Al Jazeera, Euronews, CNN, Axios, European Pravda, ISW

No significant conflict developments reported

No significant conflict developments, military operations, terrorist attacks, or security incidents were documented in the Americas theater on February 16, 2026. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying security challenges affecting this region.

Drone strike on Sudan market kills 28 civilians in North Kordofan

A drone strike on a market in the al-Safia area near Sodari, North Kordofan State, killed at least 28 people on the evening of February 15, with confirmation and rising tolls reported February 16. Dozens more sustained injuries. The Emergency Lawyers advocacy group documented the strike but did not attribute responsibility, though local reports indicated the Sudanese Armed Forces had been conducting intensive strikes against RSF positions in Kordofan since Sunday.

Senior JNIM commander defects to Islamic State in largest recorded fighter transfer

A senior JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate) commander known as "Saad," responsible for eastern Burkina Faso, defected to the Islamic State Sahel Province along with what was described as the largest mass transfer of fighters from JNIM to IS on record. Saad justified his defection by claiming JNIM leaders had stopped observing Sharia in full. Separately, JNIM formally claimed responsibility on February 16 for the February 14 Titao attack in northern Burkina Faso, stating it killed dozens of Burkinabè soldiers; Ghanaian traders were also caught in the attack.

U.S. AFRICOM strikes IS-Somalia as Turkey expands military footprint

U.S. AFRICOM conducted an airstrike against IS-Somalia in Puntland on February 16, reportedly killing dozens of insurgents. This was part of a high-tempo campaign including strikes on February 1, 3, 9, 10, and 13. Turkey deepened its military footprint in Somalia, dispatching the deep-sea drilling vessel "Çağrı Bey" with a three-warship naval escort for offshore oil exploration — following the deployment of Turkish F-16s to Mogadishu on January 28 and the arrival of Turkish battle tanks in mid-February.

Mali neutralizes militants near Douentsa as broader crises persist

The Malian armed forces announced a large-scale air-land operation near Douentsa that neutralized approximately 10 militants on February 15. Ongoing crises persisted across the continent: the DRC ceasefire with M23 was set for February 18, with Rwanda-backed M23 still holding Goma and Bukavu. In South Sudan, 280,000+ people were displaced by fighting in Jonglei amid a cholera epidemic with 98,000+ cases. Ethiopia's Amhara region saw continued fighting between government forces and Fano militia across 37+ woredas. In Nigeria, opposition figures condemned the killing of 1,300 people by armed groups in the first 41 days of the year, while 200 U.S. military personnel reportedly arrived to assist counter-IS operations.

Sources

Sudan Tribune, GhanaWeb, Defcon Level, Turkish Minute, Critical Threats, UN News, Amhara Association of America, Naija News, Malian General Staff

Myanmar junta expels Timor-Leste diplomat over war crimes case

Myanmar's military junta expelled Timor-Leste's chargé d'affaires on February 16 after Timor-Leste initiated universal jurisdiction legal proceedings for war crimes — the first time an ASEAN member has taken such action against a fellow member state. The junta called the legal case "a great disappointment" and accused Dili of violating the ASEAN Charter. The Chin Human Rights Organization filed the original complaint, with Timorese President José Ramos-Horta receiving the delegation in January.

Resistance forces strike junta convoy as military burns villages

On the ground in Myanmar, resistance forces attacked a junta Pyusawti Militia convoy in Mindone Township, Magway Region, killing one junta member. The military conducted drone attacks with incendiary bombs in Wetlet Township, Sagaing Region, setting civilian houses on fire. Pa-O authorities ordered 250 households off ancestral land in Southern Shan State. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited the North-West Command in Homalin, a major resistance zone, in an apparent projection of control.

Seven bombings rock Thailand's deep south ahead of Ramadan

Seven coordinated explosions occurred between Saturday night and early Sunday in Thailand's Malay-Muslim insurgency zone, attributed to separatist groups attempting to stir unrest ahead of Ramadan. No injuries were reported. Separately, Naveed Akram, accused of killing 15 at a Bondi Beach Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, made his first court appearance on February 16, facing murder and terrorism charges.

Sources

Reuters, Associated Press, The Rio Times, Irrawaddy, Radio Free Asia, Alwayspattaya, Press Democrat

TTP suicide vehicle bombing kills 24 at Bajaur checkpoint

The deadliest single event globally on February 16 was a TTP suicide vehicle bombing in Malangi, Bajaur District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. An explosive-laden vehicle rammed a joint Frontier Corps/police checkpoint, collapsing the building. Eleven security personnel were killed (1 police officer, 10 FC members), along with 1 young girl, while 7 civilians including women and children were injured. Retaliating security forces eliminated 12 militants. Pakistan's ISPR attributed the attack to "Fitna al-Khwarij" (TTP). PM Shehbaz Sharif, President Zardari, and KP Chief Minister Afridi all condemned the attack.

IED kills two at Bannu police station as violence spreads

In Bannu District, a motorcycle IED detonated near the main gate of Miryan Police Station, killing 2 people including a child and injuring 12–15, several critically. A separate mortar shell explosion in Salarzai, Bajaur killed 1 person. Pakistan's combined toll for the day reached approximately 37 killed (17 security forces, 4 civilians, and roughly 19 militants) and 33+ injured — continuing the escalation following the Balochistan attacks of January 30 through February 5 and the Islamabad mosque bombing of February 6.

Counter-terrorism raids kill seven militants in Karachi and Shangla

In Karachi, Counter-Terrorism Department officers raided a safe house in Shah Latif Town, killing 4 militants linked to the Bashir Zeb network and recovering IEDs being prepared in drums, detonators, a Kalashnikov, and five hand grenades; 2 CTD officers were injured. In Shangla District, a CTD-police joint operation killed 3 militants along with 3 police personnel. The Baloch Liberation Army separately claimed to hold 7 Pakistani soldiers and issued a 7-day prisoner swap ultimatum.

Sources

Dawn, The Tribune India, Arab News, Pajhwok Afghan News, Geo News, Daily Pakistan, Minute Mirror, ISPR

Pro-Russian hacktivists sustain DDoS campaign against Italian Olympic infrastructure

The pro-Russian hacktivist group NoName057(16) sustained DDoS attacks against Italian government infrastructure and Winter Olympics facilities, hitting approximately 120 targets including the Foreign Ministry, athlete hotels in Cortina d'Ampezzo, and Italian consulates in Sydney, Toronto, and Paris. Italy's National Cybersecurity Agency mitigated most attacks; Foreign Minister Tajani confirmed them but downplayed impact. SOCRadar documented 8,101 attack entries targeting 160 unique domains in the prior week, with Italy absorbing 42.9% of all attacks.

Lazarus Group and zero-day exploits target European governments

North Korea's Lazarus Group launched a malicious supply-chain campaign through npm and PyPI packages under the name "graphalgo," targeting software developers through fake recruitment schemes. A single threat actor exploited two critical Ivanti EPMM zero-day vulnerabilities (CVE-2026-21962 and CVE-2026-24061), breaching European government institutions including the Netherlands' Council for the Judiciary and Data Protection Authority. Russia's APT28 continued exploiting a Microsoft Office zero-day against European military and government entities across six countries.

Ransomware victims surge as Palantir hack claims circulate without verification

Over 30 organizations appeared as new ransomware victims on dark web leak sites on February 16, including Newcastle, Delaware's city government (TheGentlemen group) and Community Health Association of Spokane (Genesis group). The unverified claim by Kim Dotcom that Palantir Technologies was hacked — amplified almost exclusively by Russian state media on the eve of Geneva peace talks — bore the hallmarks of an information operation. Palantir's CTO dismissed the claims; no cybersecurity firm or government agency corroborated them. The U.S. DHS partial shutdown beginning February 14 continued to degrade CISA's cybersecurity posture.

Sources

Security Affairs, The Record, Check Point Research, SOCRadar, The Hacker News, Cyware, BreachSense