Executive Summary

It's Sunday, February 15th. On the 15th, at least 83 people were confirmed killed across 11 countries and territories. Israeli airstrikes killed 11–12 Palestinians in Gaza including a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander, while a separate strike on Majdal Anjar, Lebanon killed four more. Ukraine launched one of its largest drone campaigns of the war, striking the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai and leaving Bryansk Oblast largely without power after intercepting 170+ drones. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 217 combat clashes along the front. In Nigeria's Niger State, motorcycle-borne gunmen massacred 32–46 villagers in Borgu Local Government Area. Five European nations confirmed at the Munich Security Conference that Alexei Navalny was assassinated with epibatidine, a rare dart frog toxin. US-brokered peace talks in Geneva were confirmed for February 17–18.

Israeli airstrikes kill 11–12 across Gaza after ceasefire breach

The deadliest escalation in the Israel-Gaza ceasefire since its October 2025 inception unfolded on February 15 after five Palestinian gunmen emerged from a tunnel and approached IDF troops on the Israeli side of the ceasefire line overnight on February 14–15. The IDF described this as a "blatant violation" and responded with a wave of airstrikes across the Strip. In Jabalia refugee camp, Israeli forces struck tents sheltering displaced Palestinians, killing at least 5 people as they slept. In Khan Younis, attacks killed 5 people west of the city, with Nasser Hospital confirming casualties. In Tel al-Hawa, Gaza City, an airstrike killed Sami al-Dahdouh, 56, a senior commander in the al-Quds Brigades. An additional Palestinian was killed by IDF gunfire in Beit Lahiya. Gaza health authorities reported 11–12 total dead, with the discrepancy reflecting different counting methodologies. Since the ceasefire began, at least 601 Palestinians have been killed and 1,607 wounded, with 1,620+ ceasefire violations documented. MSF suspended nonessential activities at Nasser Hospital due to the presence of gunmen and "suspicion of weapons transfers" inside the facility.

IDF strike on Lebanon kills four near Syrian border

The IDF conducted a drone airstrike on a vehicle in Majdal Anjar, eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border, killing 4 people. Israel stated it targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives; one victim was identified as Syrian national Khaled Mohammad al-Ahmad. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health confirmed the strike, and civil defense teams extinguished a fire inside the vehicle and recovered the bodies. This was the first Israeli strike claimed against PIJ in Lebanon since the November 2024 Hezbollah ceasefire. Separately, the IDF conducted airstrikes across southern Lebanon late Saturday night, targeting Hezbollah weapon depots and rocket launchers. Israel stated Hezbollah continued rebuilding military infrastructure in violation of the ceasefire. UNIFIL has documented 10,000+ Israeli ceasefire violations since November 2024, including 7,500 airspace breaches and 2,500 ground incursions.

Syrian army takes control of al-Shaddadi base after US withdrawal

Syria's Ministry of Defence announced on February 15 that the Syrian Arab Army assumed control of the al-Shaddadi military base in Hasakah Governorate following a coordinated US troop withdrawal. The base had been a US operations hub since 2016, and the handover followed the February 12 transfer of al-Tanf base. CENTCOM also announced completion of the transfer of 5,704 suspected ISIS detainees of 61 nationalities from SDF-guarded prisons in Syria to Iraqi custody, a 23-day operation concluded on February 12.

Iran crackdown continues as execution carried out in Qom

In Iran, authorities executed Esmat Najafi in Qom Prison on murder charges on the morning of February 15, amid an ongoing domestic crackdown. Tehran residents chanted anti-government slogans from rooftops and balconies on February 15, one day after massive international rallies in Munich drew hundreds of thousands demanding regime change. The broader death toll from January 2026 protests ranged from 3,117 (Iranian government figure) to over 30,000 (international media reports citing activist groups).

Sources

Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Reuters, Shafaq News, The National, CENTCOM, Syrian Ministry of Defence, UNRWA, MSF

Ukraine launches major drone barrage against Russian energy infrastructure

Ukraine launched one of its most significant drone campaigns of the war on February 15, targeting Russian energy and military infrastructure across multiple oblasts. The most strategically consequential strike hit the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal at the port of Taman in Krasnodar Krai, setting fire to oil storage facilities across 2,200 square meters. The terminal handles approximately 4.16 million metric tons of oil products annually. The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces' 1st Separate Center coordinated the operation with Special Operations Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR). Two workers were hospitalized. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system in occupied Crimea overnight.

Russian regions lose power as 170+ drones intercepted over Bryansk

In Bryansk Oblast, Russian Governor Bogomaz reported 170+ Ukrainian drones intercepted over the region during a 12-hour barrage that knocked out power and heating across five municipalities and parts of Bryansk city. Russian air defenses separately intercepted 13–19 drones heading toward Moscow, briefly restricting flights at Domodedovo airport. SpaceX deactivated Starlink terminals in Russian-occupied territories on this date, disrupting Russian drone operations, particularly the Rubikon Center's strike capabilities.

Russian strikes kill 6 across Ukraine as 217 clashes rage along front

Russia launched 83 drones at Ukraine overnight February 14–15, of which 55 were intercepted. Over the full day, Russian forces conducted 47 aviation strikes, dropped 131 guided bombs, deployed 3,031 kamikaze drones, and carried out 2,522 shellings. Civilian casualties included 2 killed and 5 injured in Kherson Oblast, where strikes hit apartment buildings, private homes, and a gas pipeline, and 1 killed and 7 injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from a guided aerial bomb strike. A Russian drone struck medical infrastructure in the city of Sumy, and falling drone debris damaged transport and railway infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, causing power and water outages in Odesa and Chornomorsk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 217 combat clashes across the entire frontline, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk direction (58 Russian assaults, 167 Russian soldiers reported eliminated). Ukraine claimed approximately 1,250 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the 24-hour period.

Five nations confirm Navalny assassinated with dart frog toxin

At the Munich Security Conference, the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands jointly announced that laboratory analysis of Alexei Navalny's body conclusively confirmed the presence of epibatidine, a neurotoxin derived from Ecuadorian poison dart frogs. The countries stated Russia "had the means, motive and opportunity" to kill Navalny in his Arctic prison in 2024. The UK referred the case to the OPCW. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it a "troubling report" and said "we don't have any reason to question it." Navalny's widow Yulia Navalnaya described his death as "a science-proven fact" of murder. Trilateral Ukraine-Russia-US peace talks were confirmed for February 17–18 in Geneva, with delegations led by Rustem Umerov (Ukraine), Vladimir Medinsky (Russia), and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Sources

Ukrinform, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian General Staff, RBC-Ukraine, Global Security, Al Jazeera, Euronews, France 24, CNN, AP

No significant conflict developments reported

No significant conflict developments, military operations, terrorist attacks, or security incidents were documented in the Americas theater on February 15, 2026. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying security challenges affecting this region.

Gunmen massacre 32–46 villagers in Nigeria's Niger State

Motorcycle-riding gunmen launched coordinated dawn raids across multiple villages in Borgu Local Government Area, Niger State, beginning around 6:00 AM on February 15. The attackers, riding an estimated 200+ motorcycles, struck Tungan Makeri, Konkoso, and at least one additional settlement. In Konkoso, the bloodiest site, residents were shot or had their throats cut, and most homes were burned to the ground. A local police station was also torched. Casualty figures varied significantly by source: Al Jazeera and AFP reported at least 46 killed (38 in Konkoso, 7 in Tungan Makeri, 1 in Pissa), Reuters reported at least 30, AP reported at least 32, and Nigerian police confirmed at least 26. The attackers were suspected bandits and jihadists based in the Kainji Forest area, where Boko Haram elements and JNIM-linked factions operate. The massacre followed the February 3 Woro attack in neighboring Kwara State, which killed 160+ people—marking a southward spread of jihadist violence from the Sahel.

Somali airstrike kills 15 al-Shabaab fighters in Middle Shabelle

The Somali National Army, coordinating with international partners, conducted an airstrike in the Middle Shabelle region on February 15, killing 15 al-Shabaab fighters who were reportedly planting IEDs along a key road. The strike also destroyed a vehicle and weapons cache intended for attacks on civilians.

RSF drone strike kills 3 at Sennar hospital in Sudan

In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces conducted a drone attack on Al-Mazmoum Hospital in Sennar State, killing 3 people and wounding 7, including a medical staff member. The Sudan Doctors Network reported the incident as the fourth RSF attack on a medical facility in February alone. The UN Human Rights Office released a report on February 15 documenting that 6,000+ people were killed over three days during the RSF's October 2025 offensive on el-Fasher, North Darfur—findings described as war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.

Sources

Al Jazeera, Reuters, AFP, Africanews, Washington Post, Sudan Tribune, Qatar News Agency, NPR, UN Human Rights Office

No significant conflict developments reported

No significant conflict developments, military operations, terrorist attacks, or security incidents were documented in the Asia-Pacific theater on February 15, 2026. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying security challenges affecting this region.

Police officer killed repelling militant attack in Bajaur district

Militants attacked a police station in Wara Mamund tehsil, Bajaur district, near the Afghanistan border in the early hours of February 15. Police repulsed the assault after a 40-minute firefight, but Additional SHO Gul Mahmood Din was killed. A large-scale follow-up operation was launched to track the attackers. The TTP was suspected based on operational patterns.

Rescue team ambushed in Tank district, two killed

In a separate incident in Tank district, a rescue team transporting injured individuals from a prior quadcopter drone incident was ambushed with an explosion and gunfire, killing 2 people and injuring 5. The TTP was suspected in both attacks.

Baloch Liberation Army issues prisoner exchange ultimatum

The Baloch Liberation Army announced on February 15 that it had detained 7 Pakistani Army members during Operation Herof 2.0 and issued a 7-day deadline for a prisoner exchange. In a notable geopolitical development, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that in the event of a US attack on Iran, the Taliban would side with Iran and provide military support, signaling a new strategic alignment.

Sources

Arab News Pakistan, Khaama Press, The Tribune India, ANI News

NightSpire ransomware group posts 26 new victims in 24 hours

The NightSpire ransomware group posted 26 new victims to its dark web leak site within 24 hours on February 15, accounting for 86% of all ransomware victim disclosures that day (30 total across all groups). Targets spanned the United States, India, Poland, Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Italy, and other countries, with professional services and manufacturing sectors most affected. Notable victims included the Abrahamsom Center (healthcare, Israel) and Adirondack Networks (technology, US).

Other active ransomware groups claim additional victims

Other active groups included DragonForce (claiming Swedish firm Bigso Box), SLSH (claiming Canada Goose), and INC_Ransom. ShinyHunters separately claimed 600,000+ customer records from Canada Goose. No confirmed state-sponsored cyberattacks or critical infrastructure breaches were identified for this specific date.

Sources

Purple Ops, Bleeping Computer, DeXpose, Hendryadrian