Executive Summary

It's Wednesday, February 4th. Russia has launched their largest combined attack of 2026 on February 3, unleashing 521 projectiles with 71 missiles and 450 drones against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in an assault that killed at least 4 civilians. Over 300,000 people were left without power or heating during sub-zero temperatures. The attack occurred just hours after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's arrival in Kyiv. This offensive came one day before scheduled U.S.-brokered peace talks, signaling the definitive end of the informal "energy ceasefire" that had largely held since mid-December. Violence in Gaza and the West Bank claimed 4 Palestinian lives simultaneously. Myanmar's military junta conducted airstrikes killing 8 civilians, including an entire family. Sudan's army broke a critical siege at Kadugli. Pakistan's counter-terrorism operations continued following the deadliest BLA attack in history. Russian state-sponsored hackers weaponized a newly disclosed Microsoft Office vulnerability within 24 hours, targeting Ukrainian government agencies.

Israeli military operations kill four Palestinians across Gaza and the West Bank

The Israeli military operations resulted in the deaths of 4 Palestinians on February 3, 2026, which is a continuation of the daily loss of life in the occupied Palestinian territories, which has been ongoing since the October 2023 escalation. The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza announced the deaths of 3 Palestinians and 15 wounded during the past 24 hours, until Monday morning, raising the total number of Palestinian casualties in the Gaza Strip since the October 2023 escalation to more than 47,800 killed and 112,000 wounded.

In the eastern parts of Gaza City, Israeli forces shot and killed a woman in the Shawwa area of the Tuffah neighborhood during ongoing ground operations in the northern Gaza Strip. The details of the attack were not immediately available. In the southern Gaza Strip, a child, Mohammad Shehada Abu Hadayed, died from his injuries sustained during the previous Israeli bombardment in the Al-Mawasi area west of Khan Younis. Other casualties were reported when Israeli drones and quadcopters fired at elderly men in the northern Gaza Strip, wounding several, including one man who was hit in the thigh.

Palestinian man killed near Qalqilia separation wall

In the West Bank, violence in the Qalqilia area resulted in the death of 20-year-old Omar Zuhair Sweirki, who was married with a 4-month-old daughter. Sweirki was shot and killed near the separation wall, which is located south of the city. The Israeli military claimed to have shot and killed four men who were attempting to cross the border into Israel through the wall. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society reported that Sweirki was taken from the military roadblock to the Darwish Nazzal Governmental Hospital in Qalqilia, where he was pronounced dead by the hospital staff.

Other violence in the West Bank includes an Israeli military raid in the Balata refugee camp near the city of Nablus, which injured 3 Palestinians, an Israeli military assault on the displacement tents in the northern part of the Jordan Valley, which injured 1 woman, and the Israeli military firing tear gas at schoolchildren in the town of Al-Khader near the city of Bethlehem. Israeli settlers attacked shepherds in the area of Masafer Yatta, which is located in the southern Hebron Hills, which is part of the settlement expansion in the area of the West Bank known as Area C.

Yemen and broader regional developments

The Houthi-controlled Red Sea corridor remained quiet for a fifth consecutive month following the October 2025 ceasefire agreement brokered by Omani mediators. No attacks on commercial shipping were reported. The informal ceasefire in Yemen continues to hold despite periodic violations on land frontlines between Houthi forces and the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government.

In Syria, no combat operations were verified on February 3. The most recent significant military activity was a British-French joint airstrike on a suspected ISIS weapons storage facility near Palmyra on February 1, part of ongoing coalition efforts to suppress jihadist remnants in the Syrian desert.

Sources: IMEMC News, Palestinian Ministry of Health Gaza, Palestinian Red Crescent Society, Wafa News Agency, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel

Russia launches largest combined attack of 2026 against Ukrainian energy infrastructure

The night of February 2-3, 2026 brought Russia's most massive combined strike on Ukraine since December 2024, with the Russian Armed Forces launching 71 missiles and 450 attack drones against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in an assault that definitively ended the informal "energy ceasefire" observed since mid-December. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that air defenses intercepted 58 of 71 missiles (82%) and 392 of 450 drones (87%), for a combined interception rate of 450 of 521 projectiles (86%). Nevertheless, the scale of the attack overwhelmed defensive systems in multiple regions, with warheads striking 27 locations across Ukraine.

The attack employed a sophisticated mix of delivery systems: 4 Kh-101/55 cruise missiles from strategic bombers, 54 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from Black Sea naval vessels, 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 4 Kh-59/69 guided missiles, 5 Kh-22/32 heavy anti-ship missiles repurposed for land attack, and 450 Shahed-series one-way attack drones manufactured in Russia from Iranian designs. The sheer volume—521 total projectiles in a single night—represented the largest single attack since the December 2024 winter offensive.

Four civilians killed as power and heating systems devastated

The assault killed at least 4 Ukrainian civilians and injured 22 more across multiple oblasts. In Zaporizhzhia, Russian drone strikes killed 2 people—both 18-year-old men—and wounded at least 8 others when munitions struck residential areas. In Donetsk Oblast near the front lines, a Russian airstrike killed a father and his adult son and wounded the mother and two children—a family that had been attempting to return to their home after evacuating earlier in the war. In Kyiv city and oblast, falling debris and direct strikes injured 9 people, damaged residential high-rises, destroyed a kindergarten, and struck the National Museum of History of Ukraine in World War II, though museum officials reported the main exhibits were undamaged.

Infrastructure damage proved catastrophic. The Darnitska Thermal Power Plant, Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, Kharkivska substation, and Ladyzhyn Thermal Power Station all sustained significant damage. DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, reported that three of its power plants were damaged. In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, the attack left over 270,000 residents without heating during temperatures that dropped below minus 10 degrees Celsius, forcing emergency crews to drain heating systems in 820+ buildings to prevent pipes from freezing and bursting. Some 50,000 residents in Odesa lost electricity. In Vinnytsia Oblast, 50 settlements lost power.

Attack timed to coincide with NATO visit and precede peace talks

The timing of the assault carried significant diplomatic implications. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was in Kyiv during the attack, having arrived for meetings with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Polish air defenses scrambled fighters as projectiles crossed Ukrainian airspace, and the Netherlands activated its Patriot missile batteries on alert status. The attack came precisely one day before scheduled U.S.-brokered talks in Saudi Arabia between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and Russian counterparts—the first direct diplomatic engagement in months, facilitated by the Trump administration.

The assault also marked the definitive end of an informal "energy truce" that had largely held since mid-December, when both sides had refrained from targeting each other's energy infrastructure amid intensive diplomatic maneuvering. With the winter heating season at its peak and temperatures at their coldest, the resumption of infrastructure targeting threatens to impose severe humanitarian costs on Ukrainian civilians.

Ukrainian strikes target Russian military infrastructure in response

Ukrainian forces responded with their own long-range strikes, launching approximately 130 drones against targets in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. The Ukrainian attacks damaged two electrical substations, causing blackouts in Belgorod city, and struck targets Russian authorities did not identify. Russian officials reported 8 civilians injured across both regions from the Ukrainian drone campaign. The strikes represented continued Ukrainian efforts to impose costs on Russian border regions and logistics infrastructure supporting the invasion.

Ground combat continues along 1,200-kilometer front line

Day 1,440 of Russia's full-scale invasion saw continued ground combat across multiple sectors of the approximately 1,200-kilometer front line. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 115 combat engagements, a slight decrease from recent averages, with the heaviest fighting concentrated in Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk directions in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces claimed incremental advances near Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub that has been the focus of the autumn-winter offensive. Fighting also continued around the partially encircled town of Chasiv Yar and in the largely destroyed city of Bakhmut's environs. In the northern Kharkiv Oblast sector, Joint Forces Task Force spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov described the situation around Vovchansk as "frankly difficult," with Russian forces pressing advances despite significant casualties.

Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, BBC News, Ukrainian General Staff, Ukrainian Air Force, DTEK, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda, CNN, RFE/RL

No significant conflict developments, military operations, terrorist attacks, or security incidents were documented in the Americas theater on February 3, 2026. Searches across Latin America, Central America, Mexico, Honduras, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, and Brazil revealed no armed conflict, political violence, or terrorism events meeting TFR inclusion criteria. The absence of immediate events during this reporting period reflects normal variance in daily conflict cycles rather than resolution of underlying security challenges affecting this region.

Sudanese army breaks RSF siege of Kadugli in South Kordofan

The Sudanese Armed Forces announced on February 3 that they had broken the Rapid Support Forces siege of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan state, marking one of the most significant battlefield developments in Sudan's civil war in recent months. SAF commander General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared that control of Kadugli opened a continuous supply route to Khartoum for the first time since RSF forces severed the connection, potentially providing relief from months of severe food shortages and famine conditions affecting tens of thousands of residents in the national capital.

The breakthrough at Kadugli followed the SAF's earlier advance at Dilling, approximately 110 kilometers to the north, in late January. Military analysts noted that the advance was aided by Egyptian airstrikes on RSF supply convoys transiting through Chad and Libya, disrupting the logistics networks that UAE-backed RSF forces had relied upon to sustain operations in central Sudan. The interdiction of these supply lines has gradually shifted the operational balance in favor of SAF forces in the Kordofan region.

Sudan's civil war, which erupted in April 2023 when tensions between SAF and RSF leadership exploded into open combat, has killed an estimated 100,000 to 150,000 people and displaced over 10 million, creating one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The RSF has been accused of conducting ethnic cleansing campaigns in Darfur, while both sides have been criticized for indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Somalia counter-terrorism operation kills 13 al-Shabaab militants

Somali intelligence forces conducted a successful counter-terrorism operation on February 2, killing 13 al-Shabaab members including 5 senior commanders in a targeted raid on a leadership meeting in Maxaa Saciid area, Middle Shabelle region, approximately 64 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu. The National Intelligence and Security Agency operation targeted a house where senior al-Shabaab leaders were reportedly planning attacks and organizing forced "tax" collections from local residents. An additional 8 militants were wounded in the operation, including 3 commanders who survived.

Islamic State-Sahel attacks continue in Niger's Tillaberi region

In Niger, Islamic State Sahel Province militants attacked a military post in Ayorou, Tillaberi region, on February 2, killing 3 Nigerien soldiers and seizing weapons and military vehicles. The attack was part of an ongoing IS-Sahel campaign in the tri-border region where Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso meet—an area the jihadist group has increasingly dominated following the withdrawal of French counter-terrorism forces and the collapse of regional security cooperation.

The Ayorou attack followed IS-Sahel's January 29 assault on Niamey International Airport, the group's most ambitious operation to date, which demonstrated its growing capability to strike at the heart of Niger's government despite the ruling military junta's claims of improved security since the July 2023 coup.

DRC ceasefire holds amid M23 territorial control

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a fragile ceasefire between government forces and M23 rebels continued to hold following a Qatari-brokered agreement, though the Rwanda-backed rebel group maintained control of significant territory in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces including mineral-rich areas around Rubaya. A UN mission was reportedly due to arrive to help monitor and enforce the ceasefire agreement. Human Rights Watch released a report on February 3 documenting ongoing abuses in eastern Congo, noting that an "end to abuses still distant" despite diplomatic efforts.

Mozambique displacement crisis deepens

In Mozambique, renewed attacks by IS Mozambique Province (locally known as al-Shabaab, distinct from the Somali group) displaced over 107,000 people from Memba district in Nampula Province, according to humanitarian organizations. The insurgent violence, which began in Cabo Delgado province in 2017, has expanded into more densely populated southern areas, threatening to destabilize a wider region and complicating international efforts to develop major natural gas deposits in northern Mozambique.

Sources: Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker, Washington Institute, Qatar News Agency, Al Arabiya, Human Rights Watch, CARE International, Long War Journal, Soufan Center

Myanmar junta airstrikes kill 8 civilians including entire family in Sagaing Region

Myanmar's military junta conducted multiple airstrikes on February 3, 2026, killing at least 8 civilians including 7 members of a single family in the deadliest single incident of the day. The strike hit Hman Hae Village in Maw Luu town, Indaw Township, Sagaing Region, where Myanmar Air Force aircraft targeted positions held by People's Defence Forces resistance fighters. Seven members of one family died together when their home was struck; at least 2 additional civilians were wounded. In related operations, junta airstrikes killed 5 resistance fighters in the same area.

The attacks continued a pattern of junta air operations against resistance-controlled territory that has intensified since the February 2021 coup. A February 2 UN report documented at least 170 civilians killed in Myanmar airstrikes during the December 2025-January 2026 period alone, coinciding with the junta's stage-managed elections that were widely rejected as illegitimate by the opposition National Unity Government and ethnic armed organizations. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar marked the five-year anniversary of the coup by calling on states to "support the people's genuine will and act to end the junta's atrocities."

Junta and Shanni allies maintain control of Banmauk

In Banmauk, northern Sagaing, Tatmadaw forces and allied Shanni Nationalities Army militants consolidated their February 2 recapture of the strategically important gold-mining township capital from Kachin Independence Army and PDF resistance forces. The junta had lost control of Banmauk on September 20, 2025, when 18 resistance groups conducted a coordinated six-day offensive to seize the town.

Banmauk's strategic value lies in its gold mining operations—at least 1,200 active mining pits and river dredging operations along the Meza River—as well as its position controlling trade routes to China and India via the Tamu corridor. The junta's recapture represents a reversal of resistance gains but comes at significant cost; specific casualty figures from the fighting were not released by either side.

Russia and Myanmar formalize military cooperation pact

Russia and Myanmar announced a new five-year military cooperation agreement (2026-2030) following Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu's visit to Naypyidaw. The pact deepens ties between the two internationally isolated governments and enables continued Russian arms sales to the junta, including fighter jets, helicopters, and air defense systems that have been used in the ongoing air campaign against civilian populations. Myanmar has become one of Russia's most reliable customers as Western sanctions on Moscow limit other markets.

Regional developments across Asia-Pacific

In the Taiwan Strait, no military incidents were recorded on February 3, though tensions remained elevated following recent Chinese military exercises. Taiwan's Kuomintang opposition leaders visited Beijing for cross-strait exchanges, drawing criticism from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party government. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to reaffirm their opposition to Taiwan independence, which Taiwan's foreign ministry condemned as "severely undermining our nation's sovereignty."

North Korea conducted no missile tests on February 3; the most recent launch was a ballistic missile test on January 26. The Philippines reported continued Chinese maritime presence in the West Philippine Sea but no new incidents.

Sources: A News, Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, Irrawaddy, ISP-Myanmar, UN News, Liveuamap Myanmar, Reuters

Pakistan counter-terrorism operations kill 22 more militants in Balochistan

Pakistani security forces killed 22 additional militants on February 3, 2026, part of ongoing counter-terrorism operations following the Balochistan Liberation Army's "Operation Herof 2.0"—the deadliest coordinated attack in the separatist group's history. The cumulative militant death toll from Pakistani operations since January 31 reached 177, making it the largest counter-terrorism campaign in Balochistan's history by confirmed kills.

The original BLA attacks on January 30-31 struck at least 12 locations across Balochistan province simultaneously, targeting Quetta, Gwadar, Mastung, Nushki, Dalbandin, and other cities with a coordinated assault on police stations, Frontier Corps installations, banks, and civilian infrastructure. The attacks killed 31 civilians (including 5 women and 3 children) and 17 security personnel before being suppressed. At Gwadar port, 11 migrant workers were killed at a labor camp housing workers on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects.

UN Security Council condemns attacks as Parliament calls for aggressive response

The UN Security Council issued formal statement SC/16287 on February 3 condemning the "heinous and cowardly terrorist attacks" in Pakistan, with Council members expressing "deepest sympathy and condolences" to victims' families and the Pakistani government. Pakistan's National Assembly adopted a unanimous resolution calling for an "aggressive national push" against terrorism and its foreign sponsors, with multiple lawmakers accusing India and Afghanistan of backing the BLA—charges both countries denied.

China's Foreign Ministry issued a statement pledging to "always support Pakistan in combatting terrorism," while Chinese operations at Gwadar Port remained suspended following the attacks on Chinese-linked infrastructure. The CPEC corridor, a $62 billion Chinese investment in Pakistani infrastructure, has been a frequent BLA target due to the separatist group's opposition to what it characterizes as exploitation of Balochistan's resources.

Security restrictions across Balochistan remained in effect, with Section 144 banning public gatherings imposed province-wide for one month, mobile phone and internet services suspended in multiple districts, and train services to and from the province halted.

Afghanistan remains quiet following January ISIS-K attack

No significant security incidents were reported in Afghanistan on February 3. The country remained on heightened alert following the January 19 ISIS-K suicide bombing at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul that killed 7 people including a Chinese national and wounded 14 others. China subsequently advised its citizens against travel to Afghanistan. Taliban security forces have intensified patrols in Kabul but continue to face an ISIS-K insurgency that has conducted dozens of attacks since the August 2021 Taliban takeover.

Sources: The Nation (Pakistan), Dawn, Pakistan Today, Arab News PK, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia, UN Security Council Press Statement SC/16287

Russian APT28 weaponizes Microsoft Office vulnerability within 24 hours of disclosure

APT28 (also known as Fancy Bear), the Russian military intelligence (GRU) hacking unit, weaponized CVE-2026-21509—a Microsoft Office security bypass vulnerability—within approximately 24 hours of Microsoft's January 26 patch disclosure, demonstrating the group's rapid exploitation capabilities. The campaign, active through February 3, targeted over 60 email addresses at Ukrainian central executive authority offices, as well as government agencies in Slovakia and Romania.

According to joint analysis by CERT-UA (Ukraine's Computer Emergency Response Team) and Zscaler threat researchers, victims received weaponized RTF documents disguised as EU COREPER (Committee of Permanent Representatives) consultation materials regarding Ukraine policy. Opening the documents exploited the vulnerability to deploy MiniDoor backdoor malware enabling email theft and COVENANT framework implants providing persistent remote access. The campaign was attributed to APT28 with high confidence based on infrastructure overlap, tactical patterns, and targeting consistent with Russian intelligence priorities.

Pro-Russian hacktivists conduct DDoS campaign against NATO members

NoName057(16), a pro-Russian hacktivist collective, conducted 5,830 distributed denial-of-service attacks during a reporting period that included February 3, with targets concentrated in the United Kingdom (55% of attacks), Ukraine, and Czech Republic. The attacks targeted government portals, financial institutions, and critical infrastructure websites, causing temporary service disruptions but no permanent damage.

Separately, the Russian Hacker Alliance conducted DDoS attacks against Danish government portals in explicit retaliation for Denmark's announcement of $220 million in military aid to Ukraine. Danish authorities confirmed the attacks caused temporary disruptions to several public-facing government websites but said no data was compromised.

Ransomware groups claim 14 new victims globally

Ransomware monitoring services documented 14 new victim claims by various ransomware-as-a-service operations on February 3, with 10 victims located in the United States and additional victims in Bahrain, Denmark, Mexico, and Taiwan. The attacks spanned multiple sectors including healthcare, manufacturing, and professional services. Qilin, which emerged as 2025's most prolific ransomware operation with over 1,000 victims, continued active operations.

China-linked group attributed for Notepad++ supply chain attack

Cybersecurity researchers attributed the months-long supply chain compromise of Notepad++ text editor hosting infrastructure to Lotus Blossom, a China-linked espionage group. According to Rapid7 analysis disclosed February 3, attackers compromised the software's update infrastructure between June and December 2025, redirecting update traffic to malicious servers for three months before detection. Targets included government agencies, telecommunications providers, and financial institutions with interests in East Asia. Developer Don Ho confirmed the compromise and said remediation was complete.

No military space or satellite incidents were reported on February 3, 2026.

Sources: The Hacker News, The Register, SecurityWeek, CISO Series, Cyberpress, SOCRadar, BreachSense, Purple-Ops, CERT-UA, Zscaler