THE FRONTLINE REPORT

Executive Summary

It's Monday, January 12th.On the 11th, Iran's anti-government protests entered a critical 15th day with death tolls reaching 192-538 depending on source, as the regime threatened to strike US bases and Israel if America intervenes militarily. Israeli forces conducted two major airstrike waves on Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, killing at least one operative and hitting seven weapons storage sites. Ukraine and Russia traded heavy blows with Russian drones killing 5 Ukrainian civilians while Ukrainian forces struck three Lukoil oil platforms 950 kilometers from the front line in the Caspian Sea. Fighting across Africa claimed at least 47 lives as Chad battled RSF forces along Sudan's border and ISWAP ambushed a Nigerian military convoy. Myanmar's junta-organized election saw widespread violence with at least 4 killed as resistance forces attacked polling stations and the military conducted 12 airstrikes during voting hours.

Iran protest death toll reaches 192-538 as regime threatens military strikes

Iran's anti-government protests entered their 15th consecutive day on January 11, with cumulative death tolls ranging from 192 according to Iran Human Rights to 538 per HRANA. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf issued an extraordinary threat during a parliamentary session, declaring that US military bases and Israel would become legitimate targets if America strikes Iran over the protests. Lawmakers rushed the parliamentary dais shouting "Death to America" following the statement. The nationwide internet blackout extended past 84 hours, severely limiting real-time verification of events.

Security forces reported 48-114 personnel killed since protests began, while over 10,600 people were arrested including 169 children. Protests continued across 185 cities in all 31 provinces despite the communications blackout and violent crackdown. The Trump administration confirmed it was considering military options including cyberattacks and direct strikes on Iranian security infrastructure. Iranian officials stated they would launch preemptive attacks based on any objective signs of a threat from the United States.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed shock at the violence against protesters and urged all parties to exercise restraint. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that safeguarding national security is a red line, while Attorney General Mohammad Movahedi Azad threatened protesters would be charged as enemies of God, which carries the death penalty under Iranian law. The ongoing unrest represents the most serious challenge to Iran's government since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.

Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah weapons sites across Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces conducted two waves of airstrikes on southern Lebanon on January 11, targeting seven Hezbollah weapons storage sites with more than 30 munitions. One Hezbollah operative was confirmed killed near Bint Jbeil. Targets included underground weapons facilities in Kfar Hatta, Al-Katrani village, Jezzine, and several other locations both north and south of the Litani River.

The IDF claimed these sites violated the November 2024 ceasefire terms, with Israeli military sources stating approximately 400 Hezbollah operatives have been killed since that agreement was reached. The strikes mark a continuation of Israeli operations against what it characterizes as Hezbollah rearmament efforts. Lebanese sources reported Israeli aircraft operating over multiple areas throughout the day, with strikes concentrated in traditionally Hezbollah-controlled regions. No Lebanese civilian casualties were reported from the January 11 operations.

Gaza violence continues with multiple Palestinian deaths

Israeli forces killed at least one suspect who crossed the Yellow Line demarcation in southern Gaza on January 11. Two additional Palestinians were killed in Al-Zaytoun neighborhood and Al-Maghazi Camp in separate incidents during the day. Details on the circumstances of these deaths remained limited due to restricted access for journalists and humanitarian organizations in the combat zones.

IDF conducts major raid in Nablus Old City

Israeli Defense Forces and undercover units launched a large-scale operation in Nablus Old City on January 11, resulting in one IDF soldier moderately wounded during exchanges of fire with Palestinian militants. Israeli forces arrested a Hamas operative during the operation. Separately, IDF forces shot and killed 58-year-old Shaker al-Jaabari in Hebron overnight when his vehicle allegedly accelerated toward soldiers at a checkpoint.

US strikes ISIS targets across Syria

US Central Command conducted large-scale strikes on multiple Islamic State targets across central Syria at approximately 12:30 PM ET on January 11. The operations, part of Operation Hawkeye Strike, continued American retaliation for the December 13, 2025 Palmyra ambush that killed two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter. CENTCOM stated in a release: "If you harm our warfighters, we will find you and kill you anywhere in the world." The strikes utilized multiple aircraft types and targeted ISIS command and logistics facilities.

The Syrian Democratic Forces completed their withdrawal from Aleppo on January 11, ending days of clashes with Syrian government forces that had killed over 25 civilians. Syrian state media reported the SDF departure allowed government forces to establish full control over previously contested Kurdish-held neighborhoods in the city.

Sources: Times of Israel, Al Jazeera, NPR, CNN, Jerusalem Post, Critical Threats, CENTCOM official statements, Military Times, AFP, Haaretz

Russian drone strikes kill 5 civilians across Ukraine

Russian forces launched 154 drones from multiple locations overnight January 10-11, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting 125 and 22 striking 18 locations across the country. The 24-hour period resulted in 5 Ukrainian civilians killed and 24 wounded in attacks across four oblasts. Donetsk Oblast suffered the heaviest toll with 4 killed and 10 injured in strikes on Yarova, Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk district. One 68-year-old man was killed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with 3 wounded from artillery and drone attacks on Nikopol.

Kharkiv Oblast reported 8 injured including damage to railway infrastructure and power grid facilities. Zaporizhzhia Oblast recorded 821 strikes on 27 localities in 24 hours, causing a region-wide power outage. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to temporarily leave the city as over 1,000 buildings remained without heat following January 8-9 mass strikes, with 30,000 households still lacking power.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 173 combat clashes across the front line on January 11. Russian forces launched 2 missile strikes using 2 missiles, 41 air strikes using 80 guided aerial bombs, and conducted 3,773 shelling attacks including 211 from multiple launch rocket systems. The Pokrovsk direction saw the heaviest fighting with 55 Russian assaults, followed by 51 attacks in the Kurakhove direction and 20 in the Kramatorsk direction.

Ukraine strikes Russian oil platforms in Caspian Sea

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces executed a deep strike operation hitting three Lukoil drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea, over 950 kilometers from the front line. The platforms struck included V. Filanovsky, Yuri Korchagin, and Valery Grayfer facilities located off Russia's Dagestan coast. Ukrainian officials stated these platforms supply fuel to Russian armed forces as part of an ongoing campaign to degrade Russia's war economy and petroleum infrastructure.

The attack represents one of Ukraine's most distant strikes since the conflict began, demonstrating expanding long-range capabilities. Russian authorities have not released damage assessments or casualty figures from the offshore strikes. The operation followed Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory earlier in the week that targeted ammunition depots and military production facilities.

Ukrainian drone kills one in Voronezh

A young woman died from wounds sustained in overnight Ukrainian drone attacks on Voronezh Oblast, Russia, with 3 additional civilians injured and damage to 10 apartment buildings. Russian Governor Alexander Gusev called it one of the heaviest drone attacks on the region since the start of the special military operation. Russian air defense forces claimed to have intercepted multiple drones over the region during the overnight period.

Sources: Kyiv Independent, Ukrinform, Ukrainian General Staff, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Washington Post, RBC-Ukraine, Russian regional governor statements via Telegram

Trump issues ultimatum to Cuba threatening oil embargo

President Trump issued a direct ultimatum to Cuba via Truth Social on January 11, stating: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE." Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded that Cuba would defend itself to the last drop of blood against any US military action. The Cuban Central Army commenced defense exercises in response to the threat.

The ultimatum comes amid continued fallout from the January 3 US military intervention in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro. Trump administration officials indicated the Cuba statement relates to Havana's support for the Maduro government and concerns about Cuban intelligence activities in the region. The threat marks the most direct US military posture toward Cuba since the 1962 missile crisis.

Venezuela releases continue slowly after US intervention

Political prisoner releases from Venezuelan detention facilities continued for the third day following the January 3 US intervention, though only 16-17 of the approximately 800 political prisoners documented by human rights organizations had been released by January 11. Opposition groups reported the releases have focused primarily on prisoners held for shorter periods rather than long-term political detainees.

The interim Venezuelan government established after Maduro's capture has committed to a comprehensive review of all politically motivated arrests, but the pace has frustrated international observers and family members of those detained during 2024-2025 post-election crackdowns. US State Department officials stated they are monitoring the release process closely and have made clear expectations for full compliance with human rights standards.

Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Trump Truth Social statements, Cuban state media, Miami Herald, Washington Post

Chad military clashes with RSF along Sudan border

Fierce fighting erupted between Chadian Armed Forces and Sudanese Rapid Support Forces along northwestern Chad's border with Sudan on January 11, killing at least 20 people. The clashes underscore the regional spillover from Sudan's civil war, which reached its 1,000th day on January 9. Chadian military sources stated RSF forces crossed into Chadian territory in multiple locations, prompting defensive operations.

Chad has accused the RSF of violating its sovereignty through both drone attacks and ground incursions in recent weeks. The Chadian government maintains it is hosting approximately 1.2 million Sudanese refugees while preventing the conflict from expanding across the border. The January 11 fighting represents some of the deadliest cross-border violence since Sudan's civil war began in April 2023.

ISWAP ambushes Nigerian convoy, kills 13 soldiers

Islamic State West Africa Province fighters ambushed a Nigerian military convoy near Gazagana village in Borno State on January 11, killing 13 soldiers and injuring several others. The attack occurred as troops were conducting patrols in the northeastern region. ISWAP has become the most active ISIS affiliate globally with an estimated 8,000-12,000 fighters operating primarily in northeastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin.

Nigerian military sources confirmed the casualties but stated reinforcements arrived and pushed ISWAP fighters back into remote areas. The ambush follows a pattern of increased ISWAP activity in Borno State during January 2026, with multiple attacks on both military and civilian targets recorded in the first two weeks of the month.

ISIS-linked ADF attacks kill 14-15 in eastern DRC

The Allied Democratic Forces, operating as ISIS-Democratic Republic of Congo, staged coordinated attacks on three villages in Lubero territory, North Kivu on January 11, killing 14-15 people including 12 civilians and 2 Congolese soldiers. Thirteen houses were burned as ADF fighters retreated into dense forests before military reinforcements arrived. Local sources reported the attacks targeted villages where residents had previously cooperated with Congolese military forces against ADF positions.

The ADF has pledged allegiance to ISIS and conducts regular attacks on civilian populations in eastern DRC and western Uganda. UN peacekeeping forces and Congolese military operations have failed to eliminate the group despite years of counterinsurgency efforts. The January 11 attacks bring the monthly death toll attributed to ADF to over 40 in North Kivu Province alone.

Sources: AFP, Reuters, UN News, Nigerian Defence Headquarters, Radio France Internationale, Congolese military statements

Myanmar election sees widespread violence and military strikes

Myanmar's junta-organized elections experienced widespread violence on January 11 as resistance forces attacked polling stations and government installations across multiple townships. Two administrative officials were killed in attacks targeting election infrastructure. The Myanmar Air Force conducted 12 airstrikes on Khin-U Township during voting hours and fired artillery indiscriminately in Ayadaw Township.

The People's Defence Force killed at least 2 military personnel in simultaneous attacks across Bago Region, while rockets fired into Mandalay injured 2 civilians. Reports from Karen State indicated residents were barred from leaving homes but forced to vote under military threat. International observers were not permitted to monitor the electoral process.

Myanmar's military junta characterized the elections as a step toward restoring democracy following the February 2021 coup, but resistance groups and international governments denounced the vote as illegitimate. Most ethnic armed organizations and democratic opposition groups boycotted the elections, calling them a sham designed to legitimize military rule. Fighting between junta forces and resistance groups has intensified since the coup, with over 50,000 killed according to monitoring organizations.

Sources: Associated Press, Myanmar Now, Democratic Voice of Burma, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bangkok Post

Pakistani drone intrusions prompt Indian military response

Indian forces detected at least 5 Pakistani drones along the Line of Control in the Naushera-Rajouri sector on January 11. The Indian Army opened fire using anti-drone measures, forcing the unmanned aircraft to return to Pakistani-controlled territory. Video footage showed tracer rounds being fired at the drones during the nighttime intrusion. Separately, security forces recovered an arms consignment including 2 pistols, 3 magazines, 16 rounds, and 1 grenade dropped by a Pakistani drone near the International Border.

A massive search operation was launched in Kanachak area after intelligence agencies intercepted satellite phone communications from suspected terrorists. Joint forces are tracking approximately 36 terrorists believed operating in Jammu region. The drone intrusions and recovered weapons indicate ongoing Pakistani support for militant infiltration attempts despite repeated diplomatic protests from New Delhi.

Balochistan violence continues with civilian death

In Pakistan's Balochistan province, Baloch human rights groups reported a 14-year-old boy was shot dead in Hoshap, Kech district, allegedly by state-backed forces. Pakistan established a new Provincial Intelligence Fusion and Threat Assessment Center in response to a 73 percent rise in combat-related deaths nationally during 2025, which totaled 3,387 deaths. The center aims to coordinate counterterrorism operations between military, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies.

Sources: Zee News, PTI, IANS, ANI, Kashmir Observer, Tribune India, Greater Kashmir, Dawn Pakistan, Arab News Pakistan

Ransomware attacks hit multiple organizations

At least 12 organizations were posted to ransomware leak sites on January 11, including the Committee to Protect Journalists attacked by CL0P ransomware group, Federal University of Sergipe in Brazil by VECT group, and multiple US healthcare and technology companies by Akira and Qilin operations. Russian APT28/BlueDelta credential harvesting campaigns targeting Turkish energy sector and European think tanks continued with evolved tactics.

SpaceX launches NASA telescope and Starlink satellites

SpaceX successfully launched NASA's Pandora exoplanet telescope and a Starlink satellite batch in dual launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base and Cape Canaveral on January 11. The Pandora mission will study exoplanet atmospheres to determine habitability markers. The Falcon 9 booster for the Starlink mission completed its 19th flight and landing, continuing SpaceX's reusability program.

ISS prepares for first medical evacuation

The International Space Station began preparations for its first-ever planned medical evacuation on January 11, with 4 astronauts scheduled to return early on January 14-15 due to an undisclosed medical issue. NASA and SpaceX are readying a Dragon spacecraft for the emergency return mission. Space agency officials declined to specify which astronaut requires medical attention or the nature of the condition, citing medical privacy.

Sources: Space.com, BreachSense, Recorded Future, Financial Times, The Hacker News, NASA, SpaceX, Roscosmos