Executive Summary

It's Thursday, February 19th. U.S.-Iran tensions reached a pre-kinetic threshold on the 18th, with a senior Trump adviser assessing a 90 percent probability of military strikes within weeks as 50 U.S. fighter jets deployed to the Middle East in a single day. The second day of U.S.-mediated Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva ended without breakthrough after just two hours, while Russia launched 127 projectiles at Ukraine overnight including an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 126 drones. Israeli settlers killed a 19-year-old Palestinian near Jerusalem and the U.S. announced a full withdrawal of roughly 1,000 troops from Syria. M23 rejected an Angolan ceasefire in the DRC as fighting raged across eastern Congo. Pakistan's counter-terrorism forces killed 14 militants in Balochistan while losing two officials to a separate militant ambush. A shooting at a park in Guanajuato, Mexico killed one and wounded eight children. Chinese state-linked hackers exploited a maximum-severity Dell zero-day for 18 months across VMware backup environments.

U.S.-Iran confrontation reaches 90 percent strike probability

The most consequential security development of February 18 was the acceleration toward open U.S.-Iran conflict. CBS News reported that President Trump was briefed by national security advisers that the U.S. military could launch strikes on Iran as early as February 21. A senior Trump adviser separately assessed a 90 percent probability of kinetic action within weeks. The Pentagon began temporarily repositioning personnel out of potential strike zones, and 50 U.S. fighter jets — including F-22s, F-35s, and F-16s — deployed to the Middle East between February 17 and 18. Simultaneously, indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva yielded a narrow agreement on guiding principles. Iran offered to suspend enrichment for three to five years and join a regional civilian enrichment consortium in exchange for lifting financial sanctions and the oil embargo. VP JD Vance dismissed the offer, stating Iran had not acknowledged core U.S. demands and military action remained on the table. Iran and Russia announced joint naval maneuvers in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean for February 19.

Israeli settlers kill Palestinian near Jerusalem as West Bank violence escalates

Israeli settlers accompanied by IDF soldiers attacked homes on the outskirts of Mukhmas village, northeast of occupied East Jerusalem on February 18. Settlers opened fire with live ammunition, stole dozens of livestock, and assaulted residents. Nasrallah Mohammed Jamal Abu Siam, 19, was shot and killed — described by the Palestinian news agency WAFA as the first person killed by Israeli settlers in 2026, and the 37th since October 7, 2023. Four others were wounded, three by live bullets. Separately, Israeli forces demolished a 10-apartment residential complex belonging to the Salhab family in Hebron's Al-Harayeq neighborhood, displacing more than 40 Palestinians. Twelve Bedouin families in the Wadi al-Seeq community near Rammun, east of Ramallah, dismantled their encampment and relocated closer to built-up areas, fleeing sustained settler violence — their second forced displacement in two years.

U.S. announces full Syria withdrawal; Hezbollah rejects disarmament

The Wall Street Journal reported on February 18 that the United States is withdrawing all roughly 1,000 troops from Syria, citing three U.S. officials. PBS confirmed the report. The withdrawal follows the SDF-Syrian government integration agreement from January 2026 and comes under the new Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the Lebanese government's four-month disarmament timeline as pro-Israel, stating the government should focus on halting Israeli aggression rather than demanding Hezbollah surrender weapons north of the Litani River. Israel has killed 370 or more people in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire and committed over 10,000 ceasefire violations according to UNIFIL.

Gaza remains unstable as UN warns of West Bank explosion

Staff Sgt. Ofri Yafe, 21, of the IDF Paratroopers Brigade Reconnaissance Unit was killed by friendly fire during an overnight operation in southern Gaza on February 18 — circumstances remain under investigation. The UN documented 591 or more Palestinians killed since the October 2025 ceasefire as of February 12. The UN Security Council held its monthly open briefing on the Middle East, with Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo warning that Gaza is not at peace, the West Bank faces de facto annexation and a serious risk of further instability, and Israeli military operations across both territories had intensified.

Sources

Times of Israel, CBS News, Axios, Wall Street Journal, PBS, WAFA, The National, Al Jazeera, Just Security, PressTV, Wikipedia

Geneva peace talks end Day 2 without breakthrough

The second and final day of U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States lasted approximately two hours at the InterContinental Hotel in Geneva on February 18 — significantly shorter than Day 1's six hours. Ukraine's delegation, led by NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov with intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov attending, reported progress on the military track, specifically ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. Russian envoy Vladimir Medinsky held a separate 90-minute closed-door bilateral with the Ukrainian side after formal talks concluded, calling the discussions difficult but businesslike. Sticking points remain: Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from remaining Donbas territory and the dismantling of NATO infrastructure; Ukraine insists on freezing current frontline positions. Officials from the UK, France, Germany, and Italy were present for sideline discussions but not formally included. Both sides agreed to continue talks.

Russia launches 127 projectiles as Ukraine strikes defense plant

Overnight into February 18, Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 126 attack drones — Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas types — from launch sites across occupied Crimea, Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or jammed 100 of the 126 drones, but at least 23 drones and the missile struck 14 locations. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 54-year-old man was killed in Nikopol district. In Sumy Oblast, 11 people were injured by a drone strike on Sumy city, with 38 strikes hitting 27 settlements. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, casualties from a February 17 evening drone attack rose to one woman killed and seven injured, including an 18-month-old and an 11-year-old girl, with 638 strikes hitting 40 settlements over the prior 24 hours. Six people were injured across 30 settlements in Kherson Oblast.

Russian guided bombs strike Kostiantynivka as 201 engagements rage

Russian forces dropped three FAB-250 guided bombs on high-rise buildings in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, damaging 21 multi-story buildings, destroying a gas distribution station, and cutting the city's gas supply. The Ukrainian General Staff recorded 201 combat engagements as of 4 PM, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk direction (39 attacks) and Huliaipole direction (38 attacks). Russian forces conducted 51 aviation strikes, dropped 156 guided aerial bombs, deployed 3,191 kamikaze drones, and fired 2,076 shells. Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated the eastern part of Hryshyne in Donetsk region. Ukraine reported 740 Russian losses in 24 hours, bringing cumulative losses since February 2022 to approximately 1,256,080 per Ukrainian estimates. Neither side's casualty figures are independently verifiable.

Ukrainian drones hit Shahed antenna factory 800 km from front

Ukrainian drones struck the VNIIR-Progress defense plant in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, roughly 800 kilometers from the front lines. The plant manufactures Kometa antennas for Russian Shahed-type drones and components for Iskander-M and Kalibr missiles. Multiple explosions and a large fire were confirmed near the facility. The Chuvash governor claimed no serious damage, a claim Ukrainian sources disputed. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Aleksei Krivoruchko acknowledged that Starlink terminals used by Russian forces had been down for two weeks following SpaceX's deactivation of terminals in occupied territories. Azerbaijan sentenced 13 former Nagorno-Karabakh officials, including ex-leader Arayik Harutyunyan, to penalties ranging from 15 years to life imprisonment.

Sources

Al Jazeera, Kyiv Independent, Ukrainska Pravda, Euronews, CBC News, Ukrinform, Global Security, Kyiv Post (ISW), Odessa Journal, Militarnyi, Ukraine Today, Russia Matters

Park shooting in Guanajuato kills one, wounds eight children

Armed individuals opened fire at a public park in San Francisco del Rincón, Guanajuato on the night of February 17–18, killing a 36-year-old man and wounding eight children including girls, boys, and adolescents. Approximately 20 shots were fired. Three children were discharged from hospital while five remained hospitalized in stable condition. The attack is consistent with the ongoing turf war between the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) in one of Mexico's most violent states.

U.S. Embassy issues Haiti kidnapping alert as crisis deepens

The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince issued a security alert on February 18 citing a surge in kidnappings for ransom in the Delmas area of Haiti, with kidnappers posing as police officers. The embassy warned U.S. citizens to avoid the area and vary their routes. Haiti's security crisis continues to deepen, with nearly 6,000 people killed by armed gangs in 2025, approximately 1.4 million displaced, and armed groups controlling 80 to 90 percent of the capital Port-au-Prince. The UNODC assessed that Haitian gangs now operate as transnational organized crime networks with connections across the Caribbean and Central America.

Armed Capitol arrest and drug boat strike aftermath

An 18-year-old was arrested near the U.S. Capitol on February 18 carrying a loaded shotgun, multiple ammunition rounds, and a tactical vest after running toward the building. The suspect was taken into custody without incident. Separately, the aftermath of the February 16–17 U.S. military strikes on three alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean — killing 11 people under Operation Southern Spear — continued to generate regional coverage and criticism from UN human rights bodies. The cumulative toll from the operation since September 2025 has reached approximately 155 people killed across 42 strikes.

Sources

Xinhua, Gulf News, Free Malaysia Today, U.S. Embassy Haiti, Havana Times, Spectrum News, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, UNODC

M23 rejects ceasefire as DRC fighting rages across eastern Congo

February 18 was the date an Angolan-proposed ceasefire was supposed to take effect at noon between the DRC government and M23. The rebel group rejected the terms, calling them manipulation, and fighting continued on all fronts. The Congolese army (FARDC) conducted an offensive using attack drones and helicopters against M23-aligned Twirwaneho militia fighters around Minembwe in the South Kivu highlands. Clashes occurred in numerous surrounding villages. In a separate engagement, FARDC repelled an M23 attack in the Kigoma group of Bafuliru chiefdom, pushing rebels northwest toward Lemera. Wazalendo fighters and FDLR militants also conducted incursions against M23 positions near Virunga National Park in North Kivu's Rutshuru district, setting fire to a vehicle transporting M23 goods.

Sudan drone strikes continue targeting civilian infrastructure

The Sudanese Armed Forces conducted a drone strike on the Um Rasum water well in West Kordofan on February 18, hitting a civilian gathering at the water source. The Emergency Lawyers monitoring group called it a deliberate attack on innocent civilians in an area entirely devoid of military presence. The RSF, Somoud alliance, and Unionist Alliance all condemned the strike. Fighting between SAF and RSF continued across the Kordofan region, with Kadugli, Dilling, and Al-Rahad under sustained attack. RSF drone strikes were occurring near-daily in these cities. Shelling reached the Adre border crossing with Chad, disrupting humanitarian aid flow. A separate drone strike hit a hospital in Al-Mazmoum, Sennar state. The UN High Commissioner reported more than 50 civilians killed across four Sudanese states during the week of February 15–18.

Ethiopia-Eritrea mobilization and AFRICOM strike in Somalia

Ethiopian and Eritrean forces were conducting large-scale military mobilizations along their shared borders on February 18 — the most serious escalation since 2022. The Ethiopian National Defense Force was reportedly encircling Tigray according to a Western diplomatic source. No active combat was reported, but the buildup represents a significant deterioration. AFRICOM announced a strike targeting al-Shabaab near Harbole, approximately 75 kilometers northwest of Kismayo in Somalia's Lower Juba region, conducted on February 17. South Sudan's ongoing civil war continued across 8 of 10 states, with 280,000 or more people displaced from Jonglei alone since late December 2025.

Sources

Critical Threats, Sudan Tribune, ABC News (AP), UN News, Al Jazeera, CGTN Africa, AFRICOM, The Habesha, Rio Times, Wikipedia

Myanmar civil war kills civilians near Kalay as junta recaptures Hpasawng

Myanmar's civil war generated the theater's most significant activity on February 18. Fighting near Kalay in Sagaing Region killed at least 10 civilians as military and resistance forces clashed in populated areas. In Karenni (Kayah) State, the junta recaptured Hpasawng Township eight months after resistance forces took it, though the strategic Than Lwin Bridge was destroyed during the fighting. The military deployed approximately 300 troops advancing through the Bago Yoma corridor, destroying over 100 homes in Nattalin Township and forcing thousands to flee. In Tanintharyi Region, fighting near Dawei that began February 16 killed 20 or more junta troops over two days. A 17-year-old was beaten to death by military conscription officers at a ward administration office in Mandalay after refusing forced recruitment. OCHA confirmed that 13 of Myanmar's 15 states were affected by armed conflict, with 3.5 million or more people internally displaced.

Cambodia accuses Thailand of continued occupation despite ceasefire

Cambodian PM Hun Manet told Reuters on February 18 that Thai forces continue to occupy Cambodian territory in numerous areas despite the December 27 ceasefire, laying shipping containers and barbed wire inside recognized Cambodian boundaries. He traveled to Washington for discussions on de-escalation. Thailand's press briefing called the situation relatively calm but cautioned against Cambodia's actions. The July 2025 Cambodia-Thailand border conflict displaced 500,000 or more people and killed over 100.

Philippines-U.S. boost alliance as Russia dispatches Pacific Fleet corvettes

The Philippine and U.S. governments issued a joint statement from their 12th Bilateral Strategic Dialogue on February 18 condemning China's actions in the South China Sea and committing to 144 million dollars in EDCA infrastructure and increased U.S. missile deployments. Australia's HMAS Toowoomba conducted a Spratly Islands transit alongside the USS Dewey and Philippine BRP Diego Silang. President Trump's statement that he was discussing potential limits on future arms sales to Taiwan with China's Xi Jinping raised alarm in Taipei about the reliability of U.S. security commitments. Russia's Pacific Fleet dispatched corvettes RFS Sovershenny and RFS Rezkiy for an Asia-Pacific deployment, spotted near Japan on February 16.

Sources

Myanmar Now, The Irrawaddy, Japan Times, Philippine News Agency, Philstar, GMA News, USNI News, CSIS, Australian Defence, Business Standard, Thailand PRD

Two officials killed in militant ambush on KP police station

Armed militants attacked the Yarik police station and an adjacent customs office in Dera Ismail Khan district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on February 18 along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor route. Customs official Israr Khan and police constable Mohammad Bilal were killed in the assault. The attackers also fired at passenger buses traveling the CPEC route. Two others were wounded and hospitalized. No group claimed responsibility, though the attack fits TTP operational patterns in KP, which recorded 2,331 fatalities in 2025 — a 44 percent increase year-over-year according to Pakistan's annual terrorism assessment.

CTD kills 14 militants in twin Balochistan operations

Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department conducted two intelligence-based operations in Balochistan on February 18. In Quetta's Darakhshan area, a raid on a militant hideout triggered a fierce gunbattle that killed eight militants and wounded three CTD personnel. In Barkhan's Rakhni area, six militants were killed in a separate operation. Weapons, ammunition, and explosives were seized in both raids. These operations followed the conclusion of Operation Radd-ul-Fitna-1, which killed 216 militants in the weeks after the Balochistan Liberation Army's coordinated January 30–31 attacks across the province.

India launches 2,000-troop anti-Naxal operation on Chhattisgarh border

India launched Operation Black Forest 2 (also called Operation KGH 2) on February 18 with approximately 2,000 CRPF troops and Chhattisgarh Police targeting CPI(Maoist) leaders near the Karreguttalu Hills on the Chhattisgarh-Telangana border. The operation specifically targets Bhadrachalam and Charla area committee members of the banned Maoist party. No contact or casualties were reported on the first day. The operation follows India's intensified anti-Naxal campaign that has killed over 250 insurgents in 2025–2026.

Sources

Dawn, The Nation (Pakistan), Pakistan Today, Daily Pakistan, Deccan Chronicle, ThePrint, ANI News, Wikipedia

Chinese APT exploited Dell zero-day for 18 months across VMware environments

Google Mandiant and GTIG published a report on February 18 revealing that Chinese state-linked threat cluster UNC6201 had exploited a maximum-severity (CVSS 10.0) hardcoded credentials flaw in Dell RecoverPoint for Virtual Machines (CVE-2026-22769) since mid-2024. The group deployed SLAYSTYLE, BRICKSTORM, and a novel backdoor called GRIMBOLT to maintain persistent access across VMware backup environments. The campaign targeted government, defense, and critical infrastructure sectors. CISA ordered federal agencies to patch by Saturday February 21.

First Chrome zero-day of 2026 added to CISA exploited catalog

Google released an emergency patch for CVE-2026-2441, a high-severity use-after-free vulnerability in Chrome's CSS component — the first actively exploited Chrome zero-day of 2026. CISA added this and three other actively exploited vulnerabilities to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog. The Digital Forensics Magazine news roundup for February 18 reported a separate campaign involving Cisco IOS XR routers exploited through an authentication bypass flaw affecting service provider networks.

Predator spyware targets Angolan journalist; ShinyHunters claims fintech breaches

Amnesty International confirmed the first documented case of Intellexa's Predator spyware use in Angola, infecting the iPhone of journalist Teixeira Cândido via a WhatsApp link. The case represents a significant expansion of Predator's known deployment geography. ShinyHunters claimed responsibility for breaches at fintech giant Figure, affecting approximately 967,200 customer records, and robo-advisor Betterment, affecting an estimated one million or more records. Both breaches exploited social engineering vectors. Iran-aligned hackers were targeting supporters of Iran's anti-government protests in a newly documented cyberespionage campaign. Texas filed suit against TP-Link over allegations the company enables Chinese state-backed hacking through its consumer routers.

Sources

The Hacker News, Digital Forensics Magazine, The Global Eye, TechCrunch, Malwarebytes, Cyware, Yahoo News (Amnesty International), SecurityWeek