Middle East & North Africa

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MENA: In-Depth Analysis

Executive Summary

Day 18 of Operation Epic Fury brought the US-Israeli war on Iran to a new threshold on Tuesday, March 17, 2026. Israel assassinated Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the country's de facto civilian leader, in an airstrike near Tehran hours after a back-channel diplomatic contact between Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi was reported. CENTCOM employed GBU-72 Advanced 5,000-pound penetrator munitions against hardened Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz coastline. A projectile struck the premises of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the first confirmed hit on a nuclear facility since Natanz on March 3; the IAEA confirmed no damage or radiation release. Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, became the first senior Trump administration official to resign over the war, publicly stating Iran "posed no imminent threat." NATO allies, including France, Germany, and the EU collectively, refused Trump's demand to deploy warships to secure the strait. Iran's retaliatory drone and missile campaign continued across the Gulf, hitting targets in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait and killing one person in Abu Dhabi. In Lebanon, the IDF's ground operation expanded deeper into the south as three Lebanese army soldiers were killed in Israeli strikes, displacement exceeded one million, and the UN Human Rights Office stated Israeli attacks "may amount to war crimes." An Israeli airstrike killed three in Khan Younis as the Gaza ceasefire remained under severe strain; UN-documented West Bank displacement hit 36,000 over 12 months. Drone and rocket barrages from pro-Iranian militias penetrated the Green Zone in Baghdad. Sudan's medical supply chain buckled under the war's secondary effects, with NGOs warning clinic stocks could run out within two weeks. The UN documented over 200 civilian deaths from drone strikes in Sudan since March 4. Saudi Arabia announced an emergency Arab-Islamic foreign ministers meeting for March 18.

Larijani assassinated; CENTCOM deploys bunker-busters on Hormuz coast; Bushehr struck

Israel killed Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in a strike near Tehran overnight March 16-17. Larijani had served as Iran's de facto civilian leader since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. Iran confirmed the death alongside his son Morteza Larijani, his office chief, and several bodyguards. Israel also confirmed the killing of Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani in a simultaneous strike targeting what the IDF described as "a high-level security meeting involving figures responsible for directing Iran's strategic military programs." Defense Minister Katz announced the military had been authorized to eliminate any senior Iranian or Hezbollah official "immediately upon identification, without requiring approval through chain of command."

The killing was particularly consequential because it occurred hours after Axios reported that Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi had sent text messages to US envoy Steve Witkoff exploring ceasefire discussions, representing the first known direct US-Iran contact since February 28. Araghchi publicly denied initiating contact following Larijani's death. US officials disputed his account. Larijani had been the key Iranian interlocutor for any negotiated off-ramp and was regarded as the most pragmatic senior figure remaining in the post-Khamenei government. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated from Qom that Iran would "open other fronts if the state of war continues."

CENTCOM confirmed at approximately 7 PM EST on March 17 that US forces employed GBU-72 Advanced 5,000-pound penetrator munitions against hardened Iranian anti-ship cruise missile sites along Iran's coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated: "The US will continue to rapidly deplete Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz." This marked the first confirmed deployment of the GBU-72 in the campaign. Cumulative campaign statistics as of March 17 stood at 7,000+ targets struck, 6,500+ air sorties, and 100+ Iranian ships destroyed or damaged.

A projectile struck the premises of Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant at approximately 6:11 PM local time, the first confirmed strike on the facility. The IAEA confirmed Iran reported the hit and stated no damage or injuries had occurred; radiation levels remained normal. IAEA Director General Grossi called for "maximum restraint during the conflict to prevent risk of a nuclear accident." Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachyov specified the projectile struck an area adjacent to the metrology service building near the operational power unit. The source of the projectile was not publicly identified. Rosatom had already halted construction of Bushehr Units 2 and 3 due to nearby strikes. The Natanz Nuclear Facility had been struck earlier in the campaign on March 3. Iranian domestic strikes continued across Tehran neighborhoods including Ozgol, Farmanieh, Andarzgoo, and Kamranieh, with the Iranian Red Crescent reporting relief workers attempting to reach residents trapped under rubble.

Joe Kent resigns; NATO allies refuse Hormuz coalition; diplomatic off-ramp narrowed

Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and former Army Special Forces officer with 11 combat deployments, resigned on March 17, becoming the first senior Trump administration official to publicly oppose the Iran war. In a resignation letter posted on X, Kent wrote that "Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation" and that the war was launched "due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." He referenced his late wife, Navy cryptologist Shannon Kent, killed in Syria in 2019 in a war he described as similarly "manufactured." Kent had briefed VP Vance and DNI Gabbard on Monday before resigning. President Trump responded that he "always thought he was weak on security"; Press Secretary Leavitt asserted Trump had "strong and compelling evidence that Iran was going to attack the United States first." Democratic Sen. Mark Warner agreed with Kent's reasoning, calling the resignation "credible." The administration braced for an expected Tucker Carlson interview.

On the diplomatic and alliance front, Trump's demand that NATO allies deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz was rejected by nearly all partners. French President Macron said France would "never take part in operations to open or free the Strait of Hormuz in the current context." German Defense Minister Pistorius stated: "This is not our war." EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there was "no appetite" among EU ministers. Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Ireland, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand each declined or deferred. Trump posted on Truth Social: "WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!" and in an Oval Office meeting with Ireland's Taoiseach on St. Patrick's Day called NATO's refusal "a very foolish mistake," suggesting leaving the alliance was "something to think about." The UK separately circulated a draft plan for a post-war Hormuz coalition. Kallas proposed to the UN Secretary-General a UN-backed safe passage initiative modeled on the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Commercially, the Strait remained effectively closed. Only 15 vessels transited in three days against a pre-war daily baseline of approximately 138. Gulf oil exports had fallen 61% from February levels, from 25.13 million barrels per day to 9.71 million bpd. Floating storage of Middle Eastern crude surpassed 50 million barrels. Brent crude traded near $103/barrel. Saudi Aramco was rerouting oil via the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu port on the Red Sea, with loadings averaging 2.2 million bpd. Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan organized an emergency Arab-Islamic foreign ministers meeting in Riyadh for March 18 following intensive calls with counterparts from the UAE, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and Algeria.

Lebanon ground operation expands; three Lebanese army soldiers killed; one million displaced

The IDF's ground operation in southern Lebanon expanded significantly on March 17. The 36th Division began a new "targeted ground operation toward an additional objective" while the 91st "Galilee" Division, 146th Reserve Division, and 401st Armored Brigade continued simultaneous operations. IDF forces entered and fought in several towns including Khiam, Kfar Kila, Houla, and Yaroun. IDF evacuation warnings were extended to the coastal city of Tyre, more than 40 kilometers from the border and north of the Litani River, signaling a significant expansion of the operational zone. An estimated 1,000 Hezbollah Radwan unit operatives remained south of the Litani. Over 400 Hezbollah members had been killed since March 2, per IDF Chief of Staff Zamir.

Three Lebanese Armed Forces soldiers were killed in Israeli strikes on March 17. In Qaqaiyat al-Jisr, five soldiers were hit by an airstrike while traveling; one died. In the Zibdin-Nabatieh area, two soldiers were killed by a strike while on a motorcycle after finishing their duties. The IDF stated the incidents were "under review." Lebanon's Defense Ministry formally protested to the UN and demanded accountability. Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut's Dahiyeh suburbs at dawn, targeting Kafaat, Haret Hreik, and a residential apartment in Doha Aramoun. Additional strikes killed three in Bint Jbeil and two in al-Jumayjimah. An airstrike near Burj al-Barajneh struck a road near Beirut International Airport. Three rocket sites and weapons storage facilities in the Beqaa Valley were destroyed. In the evening, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets and five drones at northern Israel, striking the Galilee, Kiryat Shmona, Haifa, and Hadera. All five drones were intercepted. A rocket struck a home in Karmiel; three residents survived thanks to a safe room.

The UN Human Rights Office issued a major statement on March 17 stating that Israeli attacks on residential buildings and civilian infrastructure in Lebanon "may amount to war crimes." Displacement orders covering 1,470+ square kilometers "may amount to forced displacement, prohibited under international humanitarian law." Updated casualties since March 2: at least 912 killed (including 111 children and 38 healthcare workers) and 2,221 wounded. Registered displaced persons surpassed 1,049,328, approximately one in five of Lebanon's population, with over 130,000 in 600+ collective shelters at capacity. A UK-France-Canada-Germany-Italy joint statement warned Israel to refrain from a broad ground maneuver. Lebanese President Aoun stated there was "no prospect for a military solution" and that Lebanon had been drawn into "the war of others." Lebanon proposed direct talks with Israel, the first such proposal in decades, though Israeli FM Sa'ar denied any talks were planned.

Green Zone penetrated; PMF leader confirmed dead; Iraq's oil economy in crisis

Baghdad's Green Zone experienced its most severe attack since the war began on the evening of March 17. At least five drones and multiple rockets targeted the US Embassy compound. The embassy's C-RAM air defense intercepted two drones; a third penetrated the compound, causing a visible fire. Three additional drones targeted Victoria Base near Baghdad International Airport. The Al-Rasheed Hotel in the Green Zone, hosting European diplomatic delegations, was struck by an Iranian drone, igniting a fire on the top floor with no reported casualties. Massive blasts struck multiple Baghdad neighborhoods including Jadiriyah, Mansour, Baya', Al Amel, and Za'faraniyah. The PMF-linked "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" claimed over 20 attacks in the preceding 24 hours.

The death of Kata'ib Hezbollah security commander Abu Ali al-Askari, killed in a Baghdad strike on March 14, was formally confirmed on March 16-17. Askari had been the group's most prominent public voice and managed intelligence and security affairs. His successor as spokesperson, Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, was named. US forces struck PMF facilities in Jufr al-Nasr (Babil province) and An-Nabai (Salah al-Din province) and killed eight Iraqi PMF fighters near the Syrian border. A strike in Baghdad's al-Jadiriyah neighborhood killed four people including two reported Iranian advisers. In Iraqi Kurdistan, IRGC drones attacked Peshmerga and Kurdish opposition group positions near Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. Iraq's Supreme Judicial Council warned attacks on diplomatic missions constitute terrorism under Iraqi law. The US Embassy issued a Level 4 Security Alert urging all Americans to leave Iraq immediately.

Iraq's oil economy faced an existential threat. Crude exports make up 90% of Iraq's national budget; production had fallen from 4.3 million barrels per day to approximately 1.4 million bpd for domestic use only as the Strait of Hormuz closure blocked export routes. Iraq's Oil Minister announced Baghdad was in formal discussions with Iran to negotiate safe passage for Iraqi oil tankers. Baghdad separately threatened the Kurdistan Regional Government with legal action over pipeline disputes and the KRG agreed to allow limited flow via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey, estimated at 200-250,000 bpd.

Gaza ceasefire frays; Hamas naval commander killed; West Bank displacement at record levels

An Israeli airstrike hit a vehicle in the al-Mawasi area of western Khan Younis on March 17, killing at least three Palestinians including a child and wounding 12 others. The Palestinian Red Crescent confirmed the strike targeted a civilian vehicle in an area crowded with displacement tents previously designated "safe" by the Israeli military. The IDF and Shin Bet separately announced the killing on March 16 of Younes Mohammed Hussein Alian, commander of Hamas's Northern Gaza Brigade in the Naval Array, in a targeted strike. The IDF stated Alian "planned to carry out attacks against IDF troops in the immediate timeframe."

The October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza remained nominally in effect but was under severe strain. Since Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28, at least 40 Palestinians had been killed in the Strip by Israeli fire. The cumulative toll since October 7, 2023 reached 72,249 fatalities and 171,898 injuries. Envoys from Trump's Board of Peace met Hamas representatives in Cairo over March 14-15, the first publicly reported contact since the Iran war began; Hamas warned it could back away from ceasefire commitments if Israel maintained border restrictions and demanded reopening the Rafah Crossing. Israel announced it would reopen Rafah "later in the week." All crossings except Kerem Shalom remained closed; 46% of essential medicines were out of stock.

In the West Bank, Israeli forces shot and killed a 17-year-old Palestinian near Salfit on March 17. Coordinated pre-dawn raids struck al-Arroub refugee camp (at least 17 detained), Sa'ir, Doura, Qaffin, Shweika, and Saida. The OHCHR released a landmark report on March 17 finding that more than 36,000 Palestinians were forcibly displaced in the West Bank over a 12-month period, documenting 1,732 incidents of settler violence and raising concerns of "ethnic cleansing." Al-Aqsa Mosque remained closed for the 18th consecutive day, the first time since 1967 it was closed during the last Friday of Ramadan, with Israeli forces firing stun grenades at worshippers performing Tarawih prayers.

Houthi restraint holds; USS Gerald R. Ford departs for repairs; Red Sea oil route strained

Three weeks into the war, Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) had not resumed Red Sea shipping attacks or entered the conflict on Iran's behalf. The National published an analysis on March 17 citing multiple reasons for the restraint: a May 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire remained in effect, weapons stockpiles were assessed as partially depleted after the 2023-2025 Red Sea campaign, and possible understandings with Saudi Arabia were suspected. The last recorded Houthi maritime attack was September 29, 2025. However, military preparations around Sanaa and Hodeidah included fortification of positions, tunnel preparation, evacuation of key facilities, and military reinforcements pushed toward Al-Jawf. Hospitals were placed on alert. An unverified Houthi statement claiming imminent intervention was denied by the group's media authority. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's declaration that Iran would "open other fronts" if the war continued raised uncertainty about whether the Houthi restraint would hold.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), deployed for 266 days, departed the Red Sea for Naval Support Activity Souda Bay in Crete for repairs following a non-combat fire on March 12 in the ship's laundry facility. The blaze took approximately 30 hours to control; nearly 200 sailors were treated for smoke-related injuries and over 600 lost their berthing spaces. The IRGC had publicly designated the Ford as a "potential target." The USS Abraham Lincoln continued operations. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the Red Sea had become the primary alternative oil export route; Saudi Aramco loadings at Yanbu more than doubled. Analysts warned that any Houthi attack resumption could push Brent crude to $130-150/barrel. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre rated the Red Sea threat level as "substantial."

Syria: US urges Syrian forces into Lebanon; ISIS expands across four provinces

A Reuters report on March 17, citing 10 sources including Syrian officials and Western diplomats, revealed the United States had encouraged Syria to consider deploying forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah. Damascus was hesitant, fearing Iranian missile retaliation and sectarian destabilization. The US ambassador to Syria called the reporting "false and inaccurate." Syria had deployed rocket units and thousands of troops along its Lebanese border since early February in a defensive posture. Israeli airstrikes struck command centers and military posts in southern Syria, and an Iranian missile's remains fell in the Daraa countryside after aerial interception in Syrian airspace. The Jordanian Air Force struck a drug-smuggling vehicle loaded with narcotics and weapons in the village of al-Anat in the southern Suwaida countryside.

ISIS was assessed as expanding across four Syrian governorates, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, Raqqa, and Idlib, with approximately 1,500 fighters who escaped detention during January 2026 clashes contributing to the deterioration. The SDF-Damascus integration process continued with roughly 80% of former autonomous administration territory ceded to Damascus under the January 30 ceasefire. Turkish Defense Minister Güler confirmed Turkey would not withdraw its 16,000-18,000 troops from northern Syria and Iraq. The Damascus governorate banned alcohol from restaurants and bars, the clearest move toward conservative governance since the Islamist-led government took power.

Sudan: 200+ killed by drones in two weeks; medical stocks near collapse

The UN raised alarms on March 17 about an unprecedented escalation of drone warfare in Sudan. UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric confirmed more than 200 civilians had been killed by drone strikes since March 4 across Kordofan and White Nile states. The OHCHR separately documented specific incidents including approximately 50 killed in Al-Muglad on March 4 when a market and hospital were struck simultaneously; 40 killed in Abu Zabad and Wad Banda on March 7; 50 civilians killed in a strike on a lorry in Al-Sunut on March 10; and an RSF drone attack on a secondary school and health clinic in Shukeiri on March 11 killing at least 17, mostly schoolgirls. Both SAF and RSF were deploying increasingly sophisticated drone systems, with RSF drones reportedly launching from Asosa Airport in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region.

Reuters reported on March 17 that Sudan's medical supply chain was on the verge of collapse. Save the Children warned that clinics serving approximately 400,000 patients could run out of essential medicines within two weeks because the Iran war had disrupted global shipping. Over $600,000 worth of essential medicines were stuck in Dubai ports. Container freight rates had risen 25-30% as ships rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The WHO regional director confirmed "a huge crunch in medical commodities going into certain provinces." USAID cuts had already closed over 60% of Sudan's emergency food kitchens. The broader humanitarian picture: 33.7 million people require humanitarian assistance, with an estimated 260,000+ killed since the war began in April 2023.

Somalia, Libya, and Gulf state developments

AFRICOM disclosed two new airstrikes on March 17: one targeting al-Shabaab near Mubaraak, 37 miles west of Mogadishu, conducted on March 15; and one targeting ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains near Bossaso in Puntland, conducted on March 16. These brought the 2026 US airstrike total in Somalia to 46, with the Trump administration on pace to surpass the 2025 record of 124 annual strikes. On March 12, the US-led Terrorist Financing Targeting Center designated 15 al-Shabaab leaders and financial facilitators for sanctions. Despite the air campaign, al-Shabaab maintained an estimated 7,000-12,000 fighters.

In Libya, protests erupted in Tripoli on March 17 against high prices and corruption. Demonstrators blocked the coastal road west of Zawiya. Libya's transportation minister met with the Turkish ambassador to discuss bilateral cooperation including potential Turkish Airlines flights to Sabha, reflecting Turkey's strategic repositioning. Human Rights Watch published a March 17 report documenting Iran's "unlawful strikes across Gulf states" since the war began, covering attacks on residential buildings, hotels, airports, and embassies across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The report confirmed at least 11 civilian deaths and 268 injuries across Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with migrant workers comprising the majority of victims. The UAE reported cumulative interceptions since February 28 of 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,627 drones. Saudi Arabia intercepted over 60 drones on March 17 alone. Kuwait arrested 14 Kuwaitis and 2 Lebanese Hezbollah affiliates for a sabotage plot.

Sources 28
Al Jazeera Iran war: What is happening on day 18 of US-Israel attacks? CNN Day 18 of Middle East conflict: top Iranian leaders killed, Trump administration official quits Al Jazeera Iran confirms security chief Larijani, Basij commander Soleimani killed CBS News Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, was killed in an airstrike. Here's why his death is so significant. Times of Israel March 17: IDF reportedly authorized to take out senior Iranian, Hezbollah figures without usual prior approval Alma Research Center Daily Report: Second Iran War, March 17, 2026 (16:00) Eurasian Times U.S. Drops GBU-72 Bunker-Buster 5,000-Pound Penetrator Munitions on Iranian Missile Sites Near Hormuz UPI IAEA: Projectile strikes premises of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant Axios "No imminent threat": U.S. Counterterrorism Center head resigns over Iran war NBC News National Counterterrorism Center director resigns over Iran war Axios Most NATO members reject U.S.-led Hormuz Strait coalition, Trump says Zawya / Kpler Middle East oil exports drop at least 60% as Hormuz stays mostly closed, data shows Al Jazeera Israeli attacks hit Beirut, southern Lebanon; one million displaced Times of Israel IDF pushes deeper into south Lebanon as Hezbollah keeps up fire at northern Israel Al Jazeera Israeli attacks on Lebanon may amount to war crimes, UN rights office says Times of Israel Lebanese army says two more of its soldiers killed in Israeli strikes The New Arab Drones and rockets slam into US Embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone US Embassy Baghdad Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Baghdad, Iraq, March 17, 2026 U.S. News & World Report Israeli Strike Kills Three People in Gaza as Iran War Strains Truce OHCHR Israel's settlement expansion drives mass displacement in West Bank: UN report WAFA Israel continues closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque for 18th day The National Mystery of no Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships three weeks into Iran war USNI News USS Gerald R. Ford Headed to Souda Bay for Repairs After Fire Jerusalem Post US encourages Syrian action against Hezbollah, Damascus is hesitant, sources say Radio Tamazuj / UN UN: Sudan drone attacks escalating casualties, blocking humanitarian access U.S. News & World Report / Reuters Sudan Clinics Face Stock-Out in Weeks Due to Middle East War, NGO Says Antiwar.com / AFRICOM US Launches Two More Airstrikes in Somalia Human Rights Watch Iran: Unlawful Strikes Across Gulf Endanger Civilians

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